Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20?
Ethereum has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.84% and 41.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -35.4% to -30.7% | 1 |
| -30.7% to -26.0% | 0 |
| -26.0% to -21.3% | 0 |
| -21.3% to -16.7% | 1 |
| -16.7% to -12.0% | 0 |
| -12.0% to -7.3% | 3 |
| -7.3% to -2.6% | 1 |
| -2.6% to +2.0% | 2 |
| +2.0% to +6.7% | 4 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 12 | -0.94% | -0.99% | 41.7% | 4.01% | -5.55% |
| 3 days | 12 | 0.12% | -2.12% | 50.0% | 9.28% | -19.78% |
| 7 days | 12 | -2.84% | -6.04% | 41.7% | 6.72% | -35.39% |
| 14 days | 12 | -3.91% | -8.34% | 25.0% | 12.85% | -30.99% |
| 30 days | 12 | -8.80% | -8.53% | 41.7% | 9.91% | -34.16% |
| 90 days | 11 | -25.13% | -23.04% | 9.1% | 32.73% | -46.77% |
Historical occurrences
12 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 20.00 | $1771.22 | -1.64% | +1.36% | +6.72% | +8.89% | +7.39% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 11.00 | $1858.36 | -2.51% | -14.85% | -11.82% | -3.60% | -8.60% | +32.73% |
| 2026-03-20 | 11.00 | $2139.51 | +0.33% | -3.92% | -3.74% | -4.07% | +9.91% | -18.26% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $2822.63 | -4.24% | -19.78% | -35.39% | -30.99% | -30.32% | -20.16% |
| 2026-01-26 | 20.00 | $2812.94 | +4.01% | +7.07% | -19.50% | -25.61% | -34.16% | -17.50% |
| 2026-01-22 | 20.00 | $2984.17 | -1.10% | -1.12% | +0.93% | -28.18% | -34.05% | -22.03% |
| 2026-01-01 | 20.00 | $2970.03 | +1.14% | +5.41% | +6.65% | +12.85% | -8.99% | -29.45% |
| 2025-12-26 | 20.00 | $2901.68 | +0.85% | +1.62% | +3.52% | +7.04% | +1.69% | -25.13% |
| 2025-12-15 | 16.00 | $3063.55 | -3.25% | -7.54% | -1.94% | -3.74% | +8.71% | -31.22% |
| 2025-12-07 | 20.00 | $3036.88 | +0.79% | +9.28% | +2.58% | -1.96% | +6.27% | -34.83% |
| 2025-11-13 | 15.00 | $3412.54 | -5.55% | -7.12% | -11.48% | -11.31% | -9.55% | -40.76% |
| 2025-11-08 | 20.00 | $3426.40 | -0.78% | +4.08% | -8.98% | -19.34% | -10.66% | -46.77% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-07-08: +6.72%
- 2026-01-01: +6.65%
- 2025-12-26: +3.52%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -35.39%
- 2026-01-26: -19.50%
- 2026-06-03: -11.82%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.