Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 20, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Ethereum
12 historical signal(s) detected for Ethereum; 9 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-11-15 | $3426.4012 | $3118.7143 | -8.98% | 91.02 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-12-14 | $3036.8756 | $3115.2714 | +2.58% | 93.37 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-22 | $3063.5455 | $3004.2205 | -1.94% | 91.56 |
| 2025-12-26 | 2026-01-02 | $2901.6808 | $3003.8548 | +3.52% | 94.79 |
| 2026-01-22 | 2026-01-29 | $2984.1750 | $3011.8150 | +0.93% | 95.66 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $2822.6338 | $1823.8053 | -35.39% | 61.81 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-27 | $2139.5142 | $2059.5891 | -3.74% | 59.50 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $1858.3640 | $1638.7504 | -11.82% | 52.47 |
| 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-15 | $1771.2224 | $1890.3094 | +6.72% | 56.00 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Ethereum · Read the full methodology