Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum After a 15% Seven-Day Drop?
Ethereum has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 3.89% and 66.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -14.9% to -11.9% | 1 |
| -11.9% to -8.9% | 0 |
| -8.9% to -5.9% | 1 |
| -5.9% to -2.9% | 1 |
| -2.9% to +0.1% | 0 |
| +0.1% to +3.1% | 0 |
| +3.1% to +6.1% | 1 |
| +6.1% to +9.1% | 1 |
| +9.1% to +12.1% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | 3.28% | 2.19% | 66.7% | 10.79% | -7.60% |
| 3 days | 6 | 5.27% | 1.99% | 66.7% | 10.11% | -9.15% |
| 7 days | 6 | 3.89% | 1.82% | 66.7% | 15.10% | -14.80% |
| 14 days | 6 | 0.26% | -0.31% | 50.0% | 12.12% | -14.89% |
| 30 days | 6 | -4.72% | -3.14% | 33.3% | 12.75% | -17.21% |
| 90 days | 6 | -21.03% | -8.93% | 16.7% | 58.47% | -34.98% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | -21.37 | $1582.46 | -0.87% | +6.83% | +5.25% | +7.99% | +12.75% | +58.47% |
| 2026-02-01 | -16.95 | $2450.66 | -7.60% | -9.15% | -14.80% | -14.89% | -17.21% | -6.33% |
| 2025-11-18 | -15.14 | $3026.22 | +3.15% | -6.40% | -2.44% | -7.58% | -6.40% | -34.98% |
| 2025-11-05 | -17.43 | $3285.23 | +4.28% | +4.30% | +3.98% | -4.98% | -4.59% | -28.67% |
| 2025-10-12 | -16.52 | $3747.46 | +10.79% | +10.11% | +3.80% | +5.51% | -4.84% | -17.67% |
| 2025-09-26 | -15.19 | $3896.06 | +3.41% | +6.25% | +15.10% | +12.12% | +1.49% | -24.40% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +15.10%
- 2026-06-06: +5.25%
- 2025-11-05: +3.98%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -14.80%
- 2025-11-18: -2.44%
- 2025-10-12: +3.80%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -15%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.