Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum After a 10% Seven-Day Drop?
Ethereum has recorded 13 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.95% and 38.5% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -14.8% to -11.5% | 2 |
| -11.5% to -8.2% | 1 |
| -8.2% to -4.8% | 1 |
| -4.8% to -1.5% | 2 |
| -1.5% to +1.8% | 4 |
| +1.8% to +5.1% | 1 |
| +5.1% to +8.5% | 0 |
| +8.5% to +11.8% | 1 |
| +11.8% to +15.1% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 13 | -2.45% | -2.51% | 23.1% | 3.41% | -8.75% |
| 3 days | 13 | -2.30% | -2.45% | 38.5% | 10.51% | -14.85% |
| 7 days | 13 | -0.95% | -1.44% | 38.5% | 15.10% | -14.80% |
| 14 days | 13 | -3.60% | -5.24% | 30.8% | 12.12% | -24.32% |
| 30 days | 13 | -6.84% | -8.29% | 23.1% | 12.22% | -33.73% |
| 90 days | 13 | -20.77% | -15.83% | 15.4% | 32.73% | -37.11% |
Historical occurrences
13 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -10.33 | $1858.36 | -2.51% | -14.85% | -11.82% | -3.60% | -8.60% | +32.73% |
| 2026-05-18 | -10.09 | $2130.75 | -0.09% | -0.15% | -1.55% | -5.90% | -15.93% | -11.72% |
| 2026-02-10 | -10.10 | $2106.79 | -4.05% | -7.54% | -5.16% | -11.75% | -2.60% | +12.49% |
| 2026-02-01 | -16.95 | $2450.66 | -7.60% | -9.15% | -14.80% | -14.89% | -17.21% | -6.33% |
| 2026-01-21 | -11.67 | $2941.88 | +1.44% | +0.45% | +2.66% | -24.32% | -33.73% | -21.32% |
| 2025-12-17 | -10.87 | $2957.86 | -4.24% | +0.67% | +0.25% | +0.34% | +12.22% | -20.77% |
| 2025-11-20 | -11.48 | $3020.94 | -6.24% | -8.37% | +0.18% | +5.56% | -1.43% | -33.98% |
| 2025-11-17 | -13.61 | $3091.91 | -2.12% | -2.30% | -9.48% | -3.27% | -4.34% | -32.54% |
| 2025-11-04 | -12.55 | $3600.36 | -8.75% | -8.00% | -0.95% | -15.95% | -11.43% | -37.11% |
| 2025-10-16 | -11.81 | $3991.54 | -2.45% | -2.54% | -4.65% | -2.22% | -21.87% | -16.56% |
| 2025-10-11 | -14.90 | $3841.67 | -2.45% | +10.51% | -0.17% | +2.45% | -6.84% | -19.15% |
| 2025-09-28 | -10.33 | $4018.70 | +3.01% | +3.20% | +11.70% | -6.75% | +2.45% | -27.18% |
| 2025-09-26 | -15.19 | $3896.06 | +3.41% | +6.25% | +15.10% | +12.12% | +1.49% | -24.40% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +15.10%
- 2025-09-28: +11.70%
- 2026-01-21: +2.66%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -14.80%
- 2026-06-03: -11.82%
- 2025-11-17: -9.48%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.