Transparent historical data
What Happens to Dogecoin When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day?
Dogecoin has recorded 20 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.89% and 35.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -50.5% to -42.9% | 1 |
| -42.9% to -35.2% | 3 |
| -35.2% to -27.6% | 2 |
| -27.6% to -19.9% | 1 |
| -19.9% to -12.3% | 2 |
| -12.3% to -4.6% | 2 |
| -4.6% to +3.0% | 2 |
| +3.0% to +10.7% | 3 |
| +10.7% to +18.3% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 20 | -0.11% | 0.82% | 45.0% | 14.39% | -5.42% |
| 3 days | 20 | -1.84% | -0.17% | 40.0% | 22.61% | -8.18% |
| 7 days | 20 | -1.89% | -0.98% | 35.0% | 16.91% | -16.68% |
| 14 days | 19 | -3.86% | -3.09% | 31.6% | 9.30% | -21.15% |
| 30 days | 18 | -8.04% | -7.96% | 27.8% | 19.65% | -36.91% |
| 90 days | 17 | -13.17% | -14.91% | 29.4% | 18.32% | -50.55% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $0.09 | -3.44% | +3.47% | -5.62% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $0.07 | +7.27% | +22.61% | +16.91% | +8.95% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 4.34 | $0.07 | -0.50% | -2.54% | -1.49% | -4.81% | -5.78% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.38 | $0.09 | -0.03% | +3.35% | -2.94% | -12.97% | -14.89% | +0.20% |
| 2026-06-08 | 3.97 | $0.09 | +0.10% | -3.81% | +3.07% | -4.70% | -13.95% | +4.03% |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $0.09 | -1.11% | +5.44% | +1.18% | +5.14% | +19.65% | -22.78% |
| 2026-04-08 | 4.35 | $0.10 | -2.92% | -1.63% | -2.34% | -0.13% | +13.16% | -19.64% |
| 2026-03-24 | 4.50 | $0.09 | +1.26% | -2.25% | -4.17% | -4.13% | +1.11% | -13.17% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3.62 | $0.09 | +4.05% | +4.53% | +13.00% | +3.86% | +1.56% | -5.37% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $0.10 | -5.42% | -8.18% | -6.47% | -3.86% | -7.61% | -6.81% |
| 2026-03-03 | 4.54 | $0.09 | -3.80% | -0.20% | -3.27% | +9.30% | -1.96% | +6.48% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $0.10 | -3.53% | -6.50% | -1.88% | -8.23% | -11.05% | -0.35% |
| 2026-02-14 | 3.89 | $0.10 | +14.39% | +4.19% | +3.40% | -3.38% | +1.18% | +18.32% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $0.10 | +0.26% | -2.06% | -0.88% | +2.49% | -8.46% | +9.69% |
| 2026-01-14 | 4.64 | $0.15 | -0.99% | -6.95% | -16.68% | -14.79% | -36.91% | -36.72% |
| 2025-12-20 | 3.09 | $0.13 | -0.20% | +0.20% | -7.69% | +7.52% | -2.85% | -28.63% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $0.15 | +4.10% | -4.34% | +1.49% | -9.72% | -13.07% | -35.43% |
| 2025-11-27 | 3.66 | $0.15 | -1.33% | -4.10% | -1.90% | -7.33% | -21.17% | -40.35% |
| 2025-10-13 | 3.98 | $0.21 | +3.18% | -5.35% | -5.91% | -0.84% | -17.05% | -32.39% |
| 2025-10-02 | 4.25 | $0.25 | +5.12% | +0.77% | +2.64% | -21.15% | -25.16% | -50.55% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +16.91%
- 2026-03-10: +13.00%
- 2026-02-14: +3.40%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-14: -16.68%
- 2025-12-20: -7.69%
- 2026-03-05: -6.47%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.