Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin rises 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Dogecoin
20 historical signal(s) detected for Dogecoin; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $0.2491 | $0.2556 | +2.64% | 102.64 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $0.2075 | $0.1952 | -5.91% | 96.57 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $0.1548 | $0.1518 | -1.90% | 94.74 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $0.1322 | $0.1220 | -7.69% | 87.46 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $0.1488 | $0.1240 | -16.68% | 72.87 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $0.0983 | $0.0975 | -0.88% | 72.23 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $0.0975 | $0.1008 | +3.40% | 74.69 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $0.1013 | $0.0994 | -1.88% | 73.28 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $0.0994 | $0.0930 | -6.47% | 68.54 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $0.0946 | $0.0907 | -4.17% | 65.69 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $0.0953 | $0.0931 | -2.34% | 64.15 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $0.0862 | $0.0889 | +3.07% | 66.12 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $0.0744 | $0.0733 | -1.49% | 65.14 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $0.0750 | $0.0877 | +16.91% | 76.15 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $0.0878 | $0.0829 | -5.62% | 71.87 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Dogecoin · Read the full methodology