Transparent historical data
What Happens to Dogecoin When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day?
Dogecoin has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.51% and 47.4% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -24.7% to -20.1% | 1 |
| -20.1% to -15.4% | 0 |
| -15.4% to -10.8% | 3 |
| -10.8% to -6.2% | 0 |
| -6.2% to -1.5% | 4 |
| -1.5% to +3.1% | 6 |
| +3.1% to +7.7% | 3 |
| +7.7% to +12.3% | 1 |
| +12.3% to +17.0% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | 0.05% | -0.39% | 52.6% | 7.63% | -8.25% |
| 3 days | 19 | -0.89% | -0.10% | 47.4% | 10.50% | -12.34% |
| 7 days | 19 | -0.51% | -1.53% | 47.4% | 16.97% | -24.70% |
| 14 days | 19 | -3.35% | -2.67% | 36.8% | 11.05% | -20.30% |
| 30 days | 18 | -9.49% | -6.69% | 33.3% | 21.05% | -28.54% |
| 90 days | 18 | -19.11% | -17.93% | 22.2% | 9.77% | -42.59% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.30 | $0.08 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -3.05 | $0.09 | +0.06% | -2.83% | -0.51% | -1.10% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -4.47 | $0.08 | +0.48% | +5.93% | +5.50% | +2.41% | -4.51% | +7.78% |
| 2026-06-02 | -3.10 | $0.10 | -8.25% | -12.34% | -14.50% | -12.73% | -28.54% | -18.71% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.23 | $0.09 | +3.53% | +4.47% | +2.35% | +9.14% | +21.05% | -19.52% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.61 | $0.09 | -2.59% | -2.23% | -1.97% | +0.29% | +5.97% | -17.71% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.76 | $0.10 | -1.27% | -4.11% | +1.24% | -3.35% | +4.13% | -8.85% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.85 | $0.09 | -0.73% | -0.89% | +4.55% | +2.43% | +1.32% | -3.74% |
| 2026-02-23 | -4.17 | $0.09 | +0.05% | +8.00% | -1.26% | -4.03% | +2.17% | +9.77% |
| 2026-02-04 | -3.87 | $0.11 | -1.78% | -7.22% | -12.37% | -4.31% | -11.30% | +3.86% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $0.10 | +0.31% | +1.46% | -5.61% | +6.74% | -9.82% | +3.85% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $0.12 | -1.49% | -11.03% | -24.70% | -20.30% | -19.58% | -11.59% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.48 | $0.12 | +2.48% | +1.19% | +2.26% | -14.50% | -20.06% | -23.16% |
| 2025-12-06 | -3.10 | $0.14 | +0.15% | +2.20% | -1.87% | -5.27% | +7.44% | -32.63% |
| 2025-12-02 | -4.49 | $0.14 | +7.63% | +8.82% | +5.22% | -4.28% | -13.32% | -31.67% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $0.15 | -5.95% | -2.73% | +2.45% | -1.07% | -11.50% | -33.32% |
| 2025-11-15 | -4.73 | $0.16 | +3.30% | -3.68% | -11.09% | -4.70% | -14.88% | -40.47% |
| 2025-11-04 | -3.66 | $0.17 | -2.78% | -3.40% | +8.80% | -9.14% | -9.16% | -37.31% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $0.19 | -4.33% | +10.50% | -4.61% | +2.08% | -7.62% | -26.71% |
| 2025-09-26 | -3.60 | $0.22 | +3.75% | +5.95% | +16.97% | +11.05% | -12.20% | -42.59% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +16.97%
- 2025-11-04: +8.80%
- 2026-06-06: +5.50%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -24.70%
- 2026-06-02: -14.50%
- 2026-02-04: -12.37%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.