Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin drops 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Dogecoin
20 historical signal(s) detected for Dogecoin; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $0.2238 | $0.2618 | +16.97% | 116.97 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $0.1937 | $0.1848 | -4.61% | 111.58 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $0.1671 | $0.1818 | +8.80% | 121.40 |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-22 | $0.1577 | $0.1402 | -11.09% | 107.94 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $0.1355 | $0.1426 | +5.22% | 113.57 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $0.1240 | $0.1268 | +2.26% | 116.14 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $0.1178 | $0.0887 | -24.70% | 87.46 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $0.0938 | $0.0926 | -1.26% | 86.36 |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-14 | $0.0919 | $0.0961 | +4.55% | 90.29 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $0.0956 | $0.0967 | +1.24% | 91.41 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $0.0925 | $0.0907 | -1.97% | 89.61 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-20 | $0.0909 | $0.0931 | +2.35% | 91.72 |
| 2026-06-02 | 2026-06-09 | $0.1009 | $0.0863 | -14.50% | 78.42 |
| 2026-08-29 | 2026-09-05 | $0.0852 | $0.0848 | -0.51% | 78.02 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Dogecoin · Read the full methodology