Transparent historical data
What Happens to Dogecoin After a 5% One-Day Rise?
Dogecoin has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -5.32% and 26.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -37.3% to -31.7% | 2 |
| -31.7% to -26.1% | 0 |
| -26.1% to -20.5% | 4 |
| -20.5% to -14.9% | 2 |
| -14.9% to -9.3% | 3 |
| -9.3% to -3.7% | 3 |
| -3.7% to +1.9% | 1 |
| +1.9% to +7.6% | 0 |
| +7.6% to +13.2% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | -0.20% | 0.03% | 47.4% | 12.08% | -7.68% |
| 3 days | 19 | -2.64% | -1.23% | 36.8% | 22.61% | -13.27% |
| 7 days | 19 | -5.32% | -3.58% | 26.3% | 16.91% | -19.77% |
| 14 days | 17 | -8.23% | -7.13% | 23.5% | 10.60% | -25.02% |
| 30 days | 16 | -15.50% | -16.09% | 6.2% | 13.16% | -37.33% |
| 90 days | 16 | -30.51% | -25.18% | 18.8% | 9.69% | -50.55% |
Historical occurrences
19 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 5.78 | $0.09 | +1.30% | +0.39% | -5.44% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 7.47 | $0.09 | -3.44% | +3.47% | -5.62% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 6.82 | $0.07 | +7.27% | +22.61% | +16.91% | +8.95% | — | — |
| 2026-06-08 | 5.31 | $0.09 | +0.10% | -3.81% | +3.07% | -4.70% | -13.95% | +4.03% |
| 2026-04-08 | 5.08 | $0.10 | -2.92% | -1.63% | -2.34% | -0.13% | +13.16% | -19.64% |
| 2026-03-05 | 9.68 | $0.10 | -5.42% | -8.18% | -6.47% | -3.86% | -7.61% | -6.81% |
| 2026-02-26 | 9.72 | $0.10 | -3.53% | -6.50% | -1.88% | -8.23% | -11.05% | -0.35% |
| 2026-02-15 | 14.39 | $0.11 | -7.68% | -9.04% | -10.50% | -15.05% | -7.66% | +1.61% |
| 2026-02-07 | 10.88 | $0.10 | +0.26% | -2.06% | -0.88% | +2.49% | -8.46% | +9.69% |
| 2026-01-14 | 8.78 | $0.15 | -0.99% | -6.95% | -16.68% | -14.79% | -36.91% | -36.72% |
| 2026-01-02 | 7.94 | $0.13 | +12.08% | +18.23% | +11.97% | +10.60% | -17.63% | -27.17% |
| 2025-12-20 | 8.31 | $0.13 | -0.20% | +0.20% | -7.69% | +7.52% | -2.85% | -28.63% |
| 2025-12-03 | 7.63 | $0.15 | +4.10% | -4.34% | +1.49% | -9.72% | -13.07% | -35.43% |
| 2025-11-19 | 6.44 | $0.16 | -4.56% | -13.27% | -5.32% | -9.76% | -24.51% | -37.18% |
| 2025-11-08 | 10.88 | $0.18 | -1.80% | +1.58% | -11.93% | -21.69% | -22.64% | -50.46% |
| 2025-10-13 | 11.95 | $0.21 | +3.18% | -5.35% | -5.91% | -0.84% | -17.05% | -32.39% |
| 2025-10-07 | 5.55 | $0.27 | -7.33% | -6.84% | -19.77% | -25.02% | -37.33% | -43.81% |
| 2025-10-02 | 6.86 | $0.25 | +5.12% | +0.77% | +2.64% | -21.15% | -25.16% | -50.55% |
| 2025-09-13 | 7.74 | $0.28 | +4.98% | -2.64% | -3.71% | -15.74% | -24.72% | -49.05% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +16.91%
- 2026-01-02: +11.97%
- 2026-06-08: +3.07%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-07: -19.77%
- 2026-01-14: -16.68%
- 2025-11-08: -11.93%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.