Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 5% One-Day Rise
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 5% one-day rise, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Dogecoin
19 historical signal(s) detected for Dogecoin; 17 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (2 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | 2025-09-20 | $0.2756 | $0.2654 | -3.71% | 96.29 |
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $0.2491 | $0.2556 | +2.64% | 98.82 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $0.2075 | $0.1952 | -5.91% | 92.99 |
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-11-15 | $0.1790 | $0.1577 | -11.93% | 81.90 |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-11-26 | $0.1616 | $0.1530 | -5.32% | 77.54 |
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-12-10 | $0.1459 | $0.1480 | +1.49% | 78.69 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $0.1322 | $0.1220 | -7.69% | 72.64 |
| 2026-01-02 | 2026-01-09 | $0.1268 | $0.1420 | +11.97% | 81.34 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $0.1488 | $0.1240 | -16.68% | 67.77 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $0.0983 | $0.0975 | -0.88% | 67.18 |
| 2026-02-15 | 2026-02-22 | $0.1115 | $0.0998 | -10.50% | 60.12 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $0.1013 | $0.0994 | -1.88% | 58.99 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $0.0994 | $0.0930 | -6.47% | 55.17 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $0.0953 | $0.0931 | -2.34% | 53.88 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $0.0862 | $0.0889 | +3.07% | 55.54 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $0.0750 | $0.0877 | +16.91% | 64.93 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $0.0878 | $0.0829 | -5.62% | 61.28 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Dogecoin · Read the full methodology