Transparent historical data
What Happens to Dogecoin After a 3% One-Day Rise?
Dogecoin has recorded 42 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.89% and 28.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -7.3% to -4.9% | 2 |
| -4.9% to -2.5% | 9 |
| -2.5% to -0.1% | 13 |
| -0.1% to +2.3% | 10 |
| +2.3% to +4.7% | 3 |
| +4.7% to +7.2% | 1 |
| +7.2% to +9.6% | 2 |
| +9.6% to +12.0% | 0 |
| +12.0% to +14.4% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 42 | -0.79% | 0.22% | 40.5% | 14.39% | -7.33% |
| 3 days | 42 | -2.16% | -1.95% | 38.1% | 22.61% | -27.50% |
| 7 days | 42 | -3.89% | -3.75% | 28.6% | 16.91% | -23.17% |
| 14 days | 40 | -7.32% | -6.69% | 22.5% | 19.26% | -26.73% |
| 30 days | 39 | -11.40% | -12.00% | 17.9% | 25.62% | -37.33% |
| 90 days | 35 | -31.96% | -26.39% | 11.4% | 18.32% | -53.42% |
Historical occurrences
42 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 5.78 | $0.09 | +1.30% | +0.39% | -5.44% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 7.47 | $0.09 | -3.44% | +3.47% | -5.62% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 6.82 | $0.07 | +7.27% | +22.61% | +16.91% | +8.95% | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | 3.15 | $0.07 | -3.09% | -2.55% | -2.26% | +19.26% | +15.37% | — |
| 2026-07-26 | 3.12 | $0.07 | +2.28% | -1.19% | -3.62% | -1.82% | +25.62% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 3.46 | $0.07 | -0.50% | -2.54% | -1.49% | -4.81% | -5.78% | — |
| 2026-07-04 | 4.58 | $0.08 | +0.13% | -1.16% | -4.42% | -6.42% | -8.74% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.68 | $0.09 | -0.03% | +3.35% | -2.94% | -12.97% | -14.89% | +0.20% |
| 2026-06-08 | 5.31 | $0.09 | +0.10% | -3.81% | +3.07% | -4.70% | -13.95% | +4.03% |
| 2026-05-11 | 3.48 | $0.11 | -1.22% | +0.08% | -3.25% | -9.18% | -24.70% | -37.46% |
| 2026-05-06 | 4.36 | $0.11 | -2.07% | -4.63% | -4.18% | -10.44% | -22.96% | -38.92% |
| 2026-04-30 | 4.80 | $0.10 | +2.31% | +4.22% | +8.04% | +8.19% | -4.31% | -31.96% |
| 2026-04-17 | 4.50 | $0.10 | +0.23% | -6.25% | -2.10% | +7.30% | +10.15% | -25.41% |
| 2026-04-14 | 3.53 | $0.09 | -1.11% | +5.44% | +1.18% | +5.14% | +19.65% | -22.78% |
| 2026-04-08 | 5.08 | $0.10 | -2.92% | -1.63% | -2.34% | -0.13% | +13.16% | -19.64% |
| 2026-03-24 | 3.72 | $0.09 | +1.26% | -2.25% | -4.17% | -4.13% | +1.11% | -13.17% |
| 2026-03-17 | 4.40 | $0.10 | -2.13% | -8.37% | -8.09% | -11.92% | -7.73% | -13.68% |
| 2026-03-11 | 4.05 | $0.09 | -1.94% | +1.38% | +6.29% | +1.08% | -2.15% | -8.96% |
| 2026-03-05 | 9.68 | $0.10 | -5.42% | -8.18% | -6.47% | -3.86% | -7.61% | -6.81% |
| 2026-02-26 | 9.72 | $0.10 | -3.53% | -6.50% | -1.88% | -8.23% | -11.05% | -0.35% |
| 2026-02-14 | 3.84 | $0.10 | +14.39% | +4.19% | +3.40% | -3.38% | +1.18% | +18.32% |
| 2026-02-07 | 10.88 | $0.10 | +0.26% | -2.06% | -0.88% | +2.49% | -8.46% | +9.69% |
| 2026-02-03 | 3.30 | $0.11 | -2.09% | -18.07% | -11.02% | -6.19% | -8.18% | -0.08% |
| 2026-01-28 | 3.29 | $0.13 | -0.98% | -8.48% | -16.39% | -26.73% | -22.91% | -21.92% |
| 2026-01-14 | 8.78 | $0.15 | -0.99% | -6.95% | -16.68% | -14.79% | -36.91% | -36.72% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +16.91%
- 2026-01-02: +11.97%
- 2025-09-27: +11.33%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-09: -23.17%
- 2025-10-07: -19.77%
- 2026-01-14: -16.68%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.