Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Rise
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day rise, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Dogecoin
42 historical signal(s) detected for Dogecoin; 30 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (12 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-12 | 2025-09-19 | $0.2558 | $0.2789 | +9.03% | 109.03 |
| 2025-09-27 | 2025-10-04 | $0.2322 | $0.2585 | +11.33% | 121.38 |
| 2025-10-07 | 2025-10-14 | $0.2668 | $0.2141 | -19.77% | 97.39 |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-11-03 | $0.2057 | $0.1865 | -9.36% | 88.28 |
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-11-15 | $0.1790 | $0.1577 | -11.93% | 77.75 |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025-11-23 | $0.1629 | $0.1403 | -13.89% | 66.95 |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-12-01 | $0.1450 | $0.1462 | +0.87% | 67.53 |
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-12-10 | $0.1459 | $0.1480 | +1.49% | 68.53 |
| 2025-12-10 | 2025-12-17 | $0.1480 | $0.1317 | -11.04% | 60.97 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $0.1322 | $0.1220 | -7.69% | 56.28 |
| 2026-01-02 | 2026-01-09 | $0.1268 | $0.1420 | +11.97% | 63.02 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $0.1488 | $0.1240 | -16.68% | 52.51 |
| 2026-01-28 | 2026-02-04 | $0.1268 | $0.1060 | -16.39% | 43.90 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $0.0983 | $0.0975 | -0.88% | 43.51 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $0.0975 | $0.1008 | +3.40% | 44.99 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $0.1013 | $0.0994 | -1.88% | 44.15 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $0.0994 | $0.0930 | -6.47% | 41.29 |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-03-24 | $0.1029 | $0.0946 | -8.09% | 37.95 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $0.0946 | $0.0907 | -4.17% | 36.37 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $0.0953 | $0.0931 | -2.34% | 35.52 |
| 2026-04-17 | 2026-04-24 | $0.0993 | $0.0972 | -2.10% | 34.77 |
| 2026-04-30 | 2026-05-07 | $0.1041 | $0.1125 | +8.04% | 37.57 |
| 2026-05-11 | 2026-05-18 | $0.1125 | $0.1089 | -3.25% | 36.35 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $0.0862 | $0.0889 | +3.07% | 37.47 |
| 2026-07-04 | 2026-07-11 | $0.0775 | $0.0741 | -4.42% | 35.81 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $0.0744 | $0.0733 | -1.49% | 35.28 |
| 2026-07-26 | 2026-08-02 | $0.0717 | $0.0691 | -3.62% | 34.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | 2026-08-19 | $0.0718 | $0.0702 | -2.26% | 33.23 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $0.0750 | $0.0877 | +16.91% | 38.85 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $0.0878 | $0.0829 | -5.62% | 36.67 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Dogecoin · Read the full methodology