Transparent historical data
What Happens to Dogecoin After a 10% Seven-Day Drop?
Dogecoin has recorded 16 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.23% and 43.8% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -7.9% to -6.2% | 1 |
| -6.2% to -4.5% | 1 |
| -4.5% to -2.7% | 5 |
| -2.7% to -1.0% | 3 |
| -1.0% to +0.7% | 2 |
| +0.7% to +2.4% | 1 |
| +2.4% to +4.2% | 2 |
| +4.2% to +5.9% | 0 |
| +5.9% to +7.6% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 16 | -1.74% | -1.46% | 37.5% | 7.63% | -7.92% |
| 3 days | 16 | -2.39% | -0.31% | 37.5% | 10.50% | -7.48% |
| 7 days | 16 | -2.23% | -0.22% | 43.8% | 10.73% | -11.09% |
| 14 days | 16 | -4.49% | -3.18% | 25.0% | 10.57% | -14.50% |
| 30 days | 15 | -9.16% | -9.88% | 6.7% | 6.49% | -21.28% |
| 90 days | 13 | -26.71% | -20.79% | 23.1% | 16.86% | -45.68% |
Historical occurrences
17 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -11.10 | $0.08 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | -12.13 | $0.08 | +0.93% | -0.42% | +10.73% | +0.46% | — | — |
| 2026-06-28 | -11.03 | $0.07 | -1.79% | -3.25% | +4.28% | -1.66% | -5.49% | — |
| 2026-06-25 | -11.35 | $0.08 | -1.68% | -2.23% | -5.23% | -4.92% | -8.67% | — |
| 2026-06-05 | -11.05 | $0.09 | -7.92% | -2.57% | -2.83% | -5.69% | -12.31% | -7.66% |
| 2026-02-22 | -10.50 | $0.10 | -6.01% | -7.48% | -5.09% | -8.54% | -5.17% | +2.45% |
| 2026-02-10 | -11.02 | $0.10 | -3.57% | -2.54% | +5.44% | -2.57% | -3.48% | +16.86% |
| 2026-02-01 | -16.88 | $0.10 | +0.31% | +1.46% | -5.61% | +6.74% | -9.82% | +3.85% |
| 2026-01-21 | -16.68 | $0.12 | +2.48% | +1.19% | +2.26% | -14.50% | -20.06% | -23.16% |
| 2025-12-17 | -11.04 | $0.13 | -4.15% | +0.37% | -1.85% | -6.48% | +6.49% | -21.82% |
| 2025-12-02 | -10.70 | $0.14 | +7.63% | +8.82% | +5.22% | -4.28% | -13.32% | -31.67% |
| 2025-11-22 | -11.09 | $0.14 | +0.05% | +8.26% | +7.18% | -0.47% | -6.50% | -29.32% |
| 2025-11-17 | -11.45 | $0.16 | -4.17% | -2.65% | -8.51% | -7.72% | -16.90% | -29.65% |
| 2025-11-15 | -11.93 | $0.16 | +3.30% | -3.68% | -11.09% | -4.70% | -14.88% | -40.47% |
| 2025-11-04 | -16.60 | $0.17 | -2.78% | -3.40% | +8.80% | -9.14% | -9.16% | -37.31% |
| 2025-10-11 | -25.07 | $0.19 | -4.33% | +10.50% | -4.61% | +2.08% | -7.62% | -26.71% |
| 2025-09-23 | -10.06 | $0.24 | -1.68% | -7.25% | -2.61% | +10.57% | -21.28% | -45.68% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-31: +10.73%
- 2025-11-04: +8.80%
- 2025-11-22: +7.18%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-11-15: -11.09%
- 2025-11-17: -8.51%
- 2026-02-01: -5.61%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.