Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 10% Seven-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 10% seven-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Dogecoin
17 historical signal(s) detected for Dogecoin; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (2 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-30 | $0.2413 | $0.2350 | -2.61% | 97.39 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $0.1937 | $0.1848 | -4.61% | 92.91 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $0.1671 | $0.1818 | +8.80% | 101.08 |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-22 | $0.1577 | $0.1402 | -11.09% | 89.87 |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-11-29 | $0.1402 | $0.1503 | +7.18% | 96.33 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $0.1355 | $0.1426 | +5.22% | 101.36 |
| 2025-12-17 | 2025-12-24 | $0.1317 | $0.1293 | -1.85% | 99.48 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $0.1240 | $0.1268 | +2.26% | 101.74 |
| 2026-02-01 | 2026-02-08 | $0.1045 | $0.0986 | -5.61% | 96.03 |
| 2026-02-10 | 2026-02-17 | $0.0963 | $0.1015 | +5.44% | 101.25 |
| 2026-02-22 | 2026-03-01 | $0.0998 | $0.0947 | -5.09% | 96.10 |
| 2026-06-05 | 2026-06-12 | $0.0885 | $0.0860 | -2.83% | 93.38 |
| 2026-06-25 | 2026-07-02 | $0.0761 | $0.0721 | -5.23% | 88.49 |
| 2026-08-31 | 2026-09-07 | $0.0821 | $0.0909 | +10.73% | 97.98 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Dogecoin · Read the full methodology