Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day?
Chainlink has recorded 20 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.25% and 55.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -5.1% to -3.6% | 2 |
| -3.6% to -2.0% | 0 |
| -2.0% to -0.5% | 2 |
| -0.5% to +1.0% | 7 |
| +1.0% to +2.6% | 5 |
| +2.6% to +4.1% | 2 |
| +4.1% to +5.6% | 1 |
| +5.6% to +7.2% | 0 |
| +7.2% to +8.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 20 | 0.84% | 0.96% | 70.0% | 8.71% | -5.09% |
| 3 days | 20 | 0.49% | 0.77% | 55.0% | 11.87% | -5.10% |
| 7 days | 20 | 0.25% | -0.03% | 55.0% | 10.17% | -12.03% |
| 14 days | 19 | -0.57% | -1.81% | 42.1% | 6.78% | -20.03% |
| 30 days | 18 | -4.75% | -5.41% | 38.9% | 8.91% | -34.90% |
| 90 days | 17 | -15.29% | -9.42% | 23.5% | 52.34% | -45.06% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $11.83 | -1.70% | +11.87% | -3.09% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $10.55 | +1.34% | +10.44% | +10.17% | +5.33% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 4.34 | $8.34 | +2.35% | -1.06% | +3.74% | +1.22% | +6.48% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.38 | $7.88 | -0.21% | +3.74% | +1.62% | -8.09% | +0.43% | +49.86% |
| 2026-06-08 | 3.97 | $7.91 | +1.07% | -4.42% | +3.33% | -1.67% | -0.59% | +52.34% |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $9.38 | -3.67% | +2.34% | -0.95% | -0.57% | +8.91% | -14.77% |
| 2026-04-08 | 4.35 | $9.33 | -5.09% | -2.55% | -3.14% | +0.78% | +5.65% | -14.06% |
| 2026-03-24 | 4.50 | $9.59 | +3.80% | +0.63% | -10.14% | -8.18% | -3.08% | -18.92% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3.62 | $9.62 | +1.67% | +2.85% | +6.68% | -0.30% | -7.99% | -17.79% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $9.87 | -0.10% | +2.88% | -8.79% | +0.06% | -12.30% | -15.29% |
| 2026-03-03 | 4.54 | $9.64 | +0.07% | +2.31% | -0.23% | +6.44% | -7.25% | -5.25% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $9.73 | +0.78% | -2.66% | +1.45% | -7.47% | -12.08% | -3.66% |
| 2026-02-14 | 3.89 | $9.73 | +2.44% | +3.14% | +0.30% | -1.03% | +5.38% | +7.71% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $9.13 | +2.81% | -3.16% | +6.47% | +6.78% | +4.36% | +7.87% |
| 2026-01-14 | 4.64 | $14.40 | +0.12% | -1.04% | -12.03% | -11.58% | -34.90% | -34.89% |
| 2025-12-20 | 3.09 | $12.53 | +0.20% | +0.34% | -2.80% | +5.95% | +8.75% | -22.02% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $13.49 | +8.71% | +0.75% | +6.85% | -4.21% | -6.43% | -28.54% |
| 2025-11-27 | 3.66 | $13.45 | -0.81% | -3.42% | +9.03% | +4.84% | -9.49% | -31.69% |
| 2025-10-13 | 3.98 | $19.03 | +4.46% | -5.10% | -9.21% | -2.58% | -19.61% | -25.94% |
| 2025-10-02 | 4.25 | $22.58 | +0.90% | -2.44% | +0.21% | -20.03% | -23.66% | -45.06% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +10.17%
- 2025-11-27: +9.03%
- 2025-12-03: +6.85%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-14: -12.03%
- 2026-03-24: -10.14%
- 2025-10-13: -9.21%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.