Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin rises 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Chainlink
20 historical signal(s) detected for Chainlink; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $22.5810 | $22.6277 | +0.21% | 100.21 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $19.0301 | $17.2775 | -9.21% | 90.98 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $13.4523 | $14.6669 | +9.03% | 99.19 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $12.5263 | $12.1759 | -2.80% | 96.42 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $14.4011 | $12.6694 | -12.03% | 84.82 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $9.1344 | $9.7250 | +6.47% | 90.31 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $9.7250 | $9.7538 | +0.30% | 90.57 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $9.7334 | $9.8743 | +1.45% | 91.89 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $9.8743 | $9.0064 | -8.79% | 83.81 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $9.5910 | $8.6187 | -10.14% | 75.31 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $9.3260 | $9.0329 | -3.14% | 72.95 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $7.9085 | $8.1720 | +3.33% | 75.38 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $8.3387 | $8.6503 | +3.74% | 78.19 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $10.5474 | $11.6202 | +10.17% | 86.15 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $11.8327 | $11.4667 | -3.09% | 83.48 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Chainlink · Read the full methodology