Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day?
Chainlink has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.35% and 52.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -22.8% to -18.3% | 3 |
| -18.3% to -13.8% | 0 |
| -13.8% to -9.3% | 1 |
| -9.3% to -4.8% | 3 |
| -4.8% to -0.3% | 7 |
| -0.3% to +4.2% | 1 |
| +4.2% to +8.7% | 1 |
| +8.7% to +13.2% | 1 |
| +13.2% to +17.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | -0.79% | -0.46% | 47.4% | 11.73% | -11.34% |
| 3 days | 19 | -0.98% | -0.04% | 47.4% | 18.02% | -14.77% |
| 7 days | 19 | 0.35% | -2.05% | 52.6% | 13.86% | -29.42% |
| 14 days | 19 | -3.30% | -2.83% | 47.4% | 10.22% | -21.78% |
| 30 days | 18 | -3.44% | -4.37% | 22.2% | 17.72% | -22.79% |
| 90 days | 18 | -21.81% | -13.97% | 16.7% | 60.75% | -39.27% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.30 | $10.88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -3.05 | $11.43 | +0.21% | -0.98% | +1.75% | +1.00% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -4.47 | $7.36 | +0.41% | +8.59% | +6.78% | +7.80% | +9.41% | +60.75% |
| 2026-06-02 | -3.10 | $9.04 | -7.52% | -11.48% | -11.62% | -8.29% | -18.74% | +23.19% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.23 | $8.73 | +7.37% | +6.10% | +3.81% | +8.64% | +17.72% | -9.42% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.61 | $9.65 | -11.34% | -12.84% | -10.47% | -7.29% | -3.18% | -23.17% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.76 | $9.88 | -1.13% | +1.24% | +2.56% | -9.49% | -2.63% | -16.30% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.85 | $9.72 | +4.54% | -1.01% | -0.88% | -6.13% | -8.44% | -17.61% |
| 2026-02-23 | -4.17 | $9.50 | -3.94% | +2.42% | -0.80% | +0.31% | +4.76% | +0.51% |
| 2026-02-04 | -3.87 | $9.91 | -1.46% | -7.83% | -13.49% | +0.88% | -0.46% | -5.62% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $10.30 | -3.73% | -3.80% | -8.83% | -3.30% | -6.40% | -11.72% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $11.64 | -3.72% | -14.77% | -29.42% | -19.42% | -18.58% | -21.69% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.48 | $12.67 | +1.40% | +2.86% | +0.51% | -21.78% | -22.79% | -26.69% |
| 2025-12-06 | -3.10 | $13.59 | +2.37% | +1.15% | +0.35% | -7.85% | -0.93% | -27.43% |
| 2025-12-02 | -4.49 | $12.08 | +11.73% | +18.02% | +13.86% | +6.50% | +1.03% | -21.93% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $12.93 | -6.28% | -3.20% | +3.20% | +10.22% | -2.93% | -24.23% |
| 2025-11-15 | -4.73 | $13.82 | +2.21% | -3.67% | -12.30% | -4.96% | -3.84% | -32.15% |
| 2025-11-04 | -3.66 | $15.23 | -3.37% | -3.34% | +7.40% | -12.62% | -3.71% | -34.89% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $17.35 | -0.79% | +14.57% | -4.21% | +3.11% | -8.23% | -23.82% |
| 2025-09-26 | -3.60 | $20.20 | +4.24% | +7.30% | +12.78% | +8.92% | -10.80% | -39.27% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-12-02: +13.86%
- 2025-09-26: +12.78%
- 2025-11-04: +7.40%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -29.42%
- 2026-02-04: -13.49%
- 2025-11-15: -12.30%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.