Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin drops 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Chainlink
20 historical signal(s) detected for Chainlink; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $20.2012 | $22.7837 | +12.78% | 112.78 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $17.3508 | $16.6196 | -4.21% | 108.03 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $15.2322 | $16.3589 | +7.40% | 116.02 |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-22 | $13.8180 | $12.1179 | -12.30% | 101.75 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $12.0759 | $13.7499 | +13.86% | 115.85 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $12.6694 | $12.7337 | +0.51% | 116.44 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $11.6356 | $8.2126 | -29.42% | 82.19 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $9.5031 | $9.4274 | -0.80% | 81.53 |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-14 | $9.7178 | $9.6325 | -0.88% | 80.81 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $9.8803 | $10.1328 | +2.56% | 82.88 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $9.6516 | $8.6414 | -10.47% | 74.21 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-20 | $8.7333 | $9.0657 | +3.81% | 77.03 |
| 2026-06-02 | 2026-06-09 | $9.0444 | $7.9932 | -11.62% | 68.08 |
| 2026-08-29 | 2026-09-05 | $11.4317 | $11.6313 | +1.75% | 69.27 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Chainlink · Read the full methodology