Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink After a 5% One-Day Drop?
Chainlink has recorded 26 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.18% and 53.8% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -3.9% to -2.2% | 9 |
| -2.2% to -0.5% | 4 |
| -0.5% to +1.3% | 6 |
| +1.3% to +3.0% | 1 |
| +3.0% to +4.8% | 3 |
| +4.8% to +6.5% | 0 |
| +6.5% to +8.2% | 0 |
| +8.2% to +10.0% | 2 |
| +10.0% to +11.7% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 27 | -0.44% | 1.02% | 48.1% | 11.73% | -3.94% |
| 3 days | 27 | 2.41% | 1.24% | 63.0% | 19.05% | -20.53% |
| 7 days | 26 | 0.18% | -0.54% | 53.8% | 14.16% | -29.42% |
| 14 days | 26 | 0.24% | -1.24% | 53.8% | 19.10% | -19.42% |
| 30 days | 26 | -2.94% | -3.41% | 42.3% | 38.79% | -32.57% |
| 90 days | 25 | -20.25% | -13.45% | 20.0% | 60.75% | -42.57% |
Historical occurrences
28 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -5.50 | $10.88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | -5.64 | $11.80 | -2.87% | -2.57% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -5.04 | $8.37 | +0.82% | +0.91% | -2.30% | -0.98% | +38.79% | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -8.06 | $7.36 | +0.41% | +8.59% | +6.78% | +7.80% | +9.41% | +60.75% |
| 2026-06-03 | -7.52 | $8.36 | -0.44% | -12.00% | -6.34% | -1.14% | -7.49% | +35.32% |
| 2026-04-09 | -5.09 | $8.85 | +1.09% | +2.45% | +4.68% | +5.03% | +16.91% | -11.18% |
| 2026-03-28 | -11.34 | $8.56 | -1.35% | +0.72% | +1.20% | +6.21% | +10.88% | -15.40% |
| 2026-03-21 | -6.62 | $9.12 | +9.65% | +5.14% | -6.19% | -5.07% | -0.62% | -12.24% |
| 2026-03-12 | -7.91 | $9.01 | +9.85% | +14.18% | +9.70% | +12.51% | +0.91% | -13.02% |
| 2026-03-09 | -6.16 | $9.53 | +0.91% | -5.52% | +7.50% | +0.16% | -2.17% | -22.46% |
| 2026-02-23 | -5.81 | $9.50 | -3.94% | +2.42% | -0.80% | +0.31% | +4.76% | +0.51% |
| 2026-02-10 | -9.52 | $8.85 | -3.09% | +5.99% | +13.39% | +3.20% | +1.81% | +21.07% |
| 2026-02-06 | -15.90 | $8.21 | +11.22% | +19.05% | +14.16% | +19.10% | +23.70% | +21.72% |
| 2026-02-01 | -8.04 | $10.30 | -3.73% | -3.80% | -8.83% | -3.30% | -6.40% | -11.72% |
| 2026-01-30 | -7.73 | $11.64 | -3.72% | -14.77% | -29.42% | -19.42% | -18.58% | -21.69% |
| 2026-01-26 | -9.99 | $12.10 | +4.32% | +4.21% | -18.05% | -19.21% | -24.06% | -22.78% |
| 2025-12-18 | -5.17 | $12.26 | -2.63% | +2.41% | +0.11% | -0.45% | +16.29% | -15.16% |
| 2025-12-02 | -6.93 | $12.08 | +11.73% | +18.02% | +13.86% | +6.50% | +1.03% | -21.93% |
| 2025-11-22 | -6.28 | $12.12 | +0.43% | +7.00% | +8.37% | +12.17% | +2.71% | -19.28% |
| 2025-11-12 | -6.49 | $15.30 | -1.03% | -9.67% | -9.95% | -14.55% | -8.04% | -42.17% |
| 2025-11-04 | -13.45 | $15.23 | -3.37% | -3.34% | +7.40% | -12.62% | -3.71% | -34.89% |
| 2025-10-31 | -7.34 | $16.79 | +2.66% | +4.82% | -12.31% | -13.46% | -22.62% | -24.89% |
| 2025-10-22 | -5.60 | $17.61 | -2.31% | +1.57% | +1.28% | -16.43% | -26.59% | -24.67% |
| 2025-10-16 | -5.55 | $18.06 | -3.59% | -6.83% | -4.72% | +0.34% | -23.48% | -20.25% |
| 2025-10-11 | -21.15 | $17.35 | -0.79% | +14.57% | -4.21% | +3.11% | -8.23% | -23.82% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +14.16%
- 2025-12-02: +13.86%
- 2026-02-10: +13.39%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -29.42%
- 2026-01-26: -18.05%
- 2025-10-08: -12.43%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.