Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink After a 5% One-Day Rise?
Chainlink has recorded 27 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.27% and 40.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -15.6% to -11.3% | 5 |
| -11.3% to -7.0% | 1 |
| -7.0% to -2.7% | 6 |
| -2.7% to +1.6% | 6 |
| +1.6% to +5.9% | 3 |
| +5.9% to +10.2% | 5 |
| +10.2% to +14.5% | 0 |
| +14.5% to +18.8% | 0 |
| +18.8% to +23.1% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 27 | -0.43% | -0.63% | 44.4% | 8.71% | -6.92% |
| 3 days | 27 | -0.47% | 0.11% | 48.1% | 11.87% | -10.82% |
| 7 days | 27 | -1.27% | -1.14% | 40.7% | 23.11% | -15.60% |
| 14 days | 25 | -2.58% | -3.05% | 36.0% | 28.73% | -23.33% |
| 30 days | 23 | -7.15% | -5.67% | 39.1% | 30.75% | -35.48% |
| 90 days | 18 | -23.58% | -18.56% | 16.7% | 52.34% | -48.04% |
Historical occurrences
27 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | 9.87 | $13.24 | -3.73% | -10.82% | -15.32% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 6.51 | $11.83 | -1.70% | +11.87% | -3.09% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-22 | 12.20 | $11.99 | -2.87% | -3.09% | -4.67% | -3.01% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 10.69 | $10.55 | +1.34% | +10.44% | +10.17% | +5.33% | — | — |
| 2026-08-16 | 5.55 | $9.46 | -0.83% | +0.71% | +23.11% | +21.07% | +21.70% | — |
| 2026-08-12 | 5.79 | $8.77 | -1.22% | +2.22% | +8.65% | +28.73% | +30.75% | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 5.24 | $8.82 | -5.04% | -5.59% | -5.02% | -7.21% | +28.04% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 5.80 | $8.34 | +2.35% | -1.06% | +3.74% | +1.22% | +6.48% | — |
| 2026-07-03 | 5.28 | $7.74 | +2.97% | +4.08% | -0.12% | +7.71% | +4.17% | — |
| 2026-06-08 | 6.99 | $7.91 | +1.07% | -4.42% | +3.33% | -1.67% | -0.59% | +52.34% |
| 2026-05-09 | 5.03 | $10.35 | +0.25% | +2.26% | -2.71% | -9.05% | -23.57% | -20.91% |
| 2026-04-14 | 7.37 | $9.38 | -3.67% | +2.34% | -0.95% | -0.57% | +8.91% | -14.77% |
| 2026-04-08 | 5.90 | $9.33 | -5.09% | -2.55% | -3.14% | +0.78% | +5.65% | -14.06% |
| 2026-03-22 | 9.65 | $10.00 | -4.54% | -0.47% | -15.60% | -13.04% | -7.15% | -20.66% |
| 2026-03-15 | 6.76 | $10.28 | -0.35% | +1.10% | -2.73% | -17.91% | -8.82% | -23.56% |
| 2026-03-13 | 9.85 | $9.89 | -2.64% | +3.58% | -1.27% | -2.45% | -8.34% | -23.60% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.92 | $9.73 | +0.78% | -2.66% | +1.45% | -7.47% | -12.08% | -3.66% |
| 2026-02-12 | 5.37 | $9.03 | +3.79% | +10.28% | +8.46% | +7.75% | +6.64% | +13.81% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.22 | $9.13 | +2.81% | -3.16% | +6.47% | +6.78% | +4.36% | +7.87% |
| 2026-01-14 | 6.14 | $14.40 | +0.12% | -1.04% | -12.03% | -11.58% | -34.90% | -34.89% |
| 2026-01-03 | 5.12 | $13.27 | -0.43% | +4.92% | +2.79% | +7.38% | -25.28% | -34.89% |
| 2025-12-03 | 11.73 | $13.49 | +8.71% | +0.75% | +6.85% | -4.21% | -6.43% | -28.54% |
| 2025-11-08 | 7.34 | $15.80 | -1.99% | +3.51% | -12.57% | -23.33% | -13.70% | -48.04% |
| 2025-10-21 | 7.99 | $18.66 | -5.60% | -6.62% | -2.42% | -18.36% | -27.57% | -26.99% |
| 2025-10-13 | 10.55 | $19.03 | +4.46% | -5.10% | -9.21% | -2.58% | -19.61% | -25.94% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-16: +23.11%
- 2026-08-20: +10.17%
- 2026-08-12: +8.65%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-03-22: -15.60%
- 2026-09-07: -15.32%
- 2025-10-07: -15.26%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.