Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink After a 3% One-Day Drop?
Chainlink has recorded 49 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.87% and 46.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -49.3% to -36.5% | 6 |
| -36.5% to -23.8% | 14 |
| -23.8% to -11.0% | 16 |
| -11.0% to +1.7% | 3 |
| +1.7% to +14.5% | 1 |
| +14.5% to +27.2% | 2 |
| +27.2% to +40.0% | 2 |
| +40.0% to +52.7% | 0 |
| +52.7% to +65.5% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 50 | -0.54% | 0.32% | 48.0% | 11.73% | -11.34% |
| 3 days | 50 | 1.03% | -0.20% | 56.0% | 19.05% | -20.53% |
| 7 days | 49 | -0.87% | -1.69% | 46.9% | 14.16% | -29.42% |
| 14 days | 48 | -4.27% | -4.05% | 33.3% | 19.10% | -25.00% |
| 30 days | 47 | -2.93% | -4.78% | 36.2% | 38.79% | -33.43% |
| 90 days | 45 | -22.61% | -16.42% | 17.8% | 65.49% | -49.25% |
Historical occurrences
51 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -5.50 | $10.88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | -5.64 | $11.80 | -2.87% | -2.57% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-08 | -3.73 | $12.74 | -1.83% | -10.02% | -9.64% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -4.12 | $11.43 | +0.21% | -0.98% | +1.75% | +1.00% | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | -3.37 | $8.16 | -1.26% | +0.19% | +0.22% | +9.81% | +36.48% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -5.04 | $8.37 | +0.82% | +0.91% | -2.30% | -0.98% | +38.79% | — |
| 2026-06-11 | -3.51 | $7.56 | +4.21% | +5.56% | +6.95% | -1.91% | +5.33% | +65.49% |
| 2026-06-05 | -3.86 | $8.01 | -8.06% | -1.22% | -1.61% | -0.02% | -0.07% | +38.76% |
| 2026-06-03 | -7.52 | $8.36 | -0.44% | -12.00% | -6.34% | -1.14% | -7.49% | +35.32% |
| 2026-05-23 | -3.37 | $9.41 | +1.49% | +0.86% | -4.22% | -21.78% | -17.37% | +13.57% |
| 2026-05-16 | -3.89 | $10.07 | -3.50% | -4.64% | -6.52% | -10.47% | -18.83% | -11.80% |
| 2026-04-19 | -3.48 | $9.28 | -2.36% | +1.23% | +0.65% | -1.20% | +3.40% | -11.14% |
| 2026-04-15 | -3.67 | $9.03 | +2.58% | +6.50% | +4.05% | +2.31% | +15.96% | -12.75% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.70 | $8.73 | +7.37% | +6.10% | +3.81% | +8.64% | +17.72% | -9.42% |
| 2026-04-09 | -5.09 | $8.85 | +1.09% | +2.45% | +4.68% | +5.03% | +16.91% | -11.18% |
| 2026-04-03 | -3.37 | $8.64 | +0.21% | +2.97% | +3.55% | +11.05% | +6.15% | -14.95% |
| 2026-03-27 | -4.75 | $9.65 | -11.34% | -12.84% | -10.47% | -7.29% | -3.18% | -23.17% |
| 2026-03-23 | -4.54 | $9.55 | +0.45% | +6.13% | -11.89% | -6.81% | -1.56% | -16.40% |
| 2026-03-21 | -6.62 | $9.12 | +9.65% | +5.14% | -6.19% | -5.07% | -0.62% | -12.24% |
| 2026-03-19 | -4.97 | $9.88 | -1.13% | +1.24% | +2.56% | -9.49% | -2.63% | -16.30% |
| 2026-03-12 | -7.91 | $9.01 | +9.85% | +14.18% | +9.70% | +12.51% | +0.91% | -13.02% |
| 2026-03-09 | -6.16 | $9.53 | +0.91% | -5.52% | +7.50% | +0.16% | -2.17% | -22.46% |
| 2026-02-23 | -5.81 | $9.50 | -3.94% | +2.42% | -0.80% | +0.31% | +4.76% | +0.51% |
| 2026-02-16 | -3.77 | $9.59 | +4.62% | +2.19% | -0.87% | -1.66% | +8.45% | +1.33% |
| 2026-02-10 | -9.52 | $8.85 | -3.09% | +5.99% | +13.39% | +3.20% | +1.81% | +21.07% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +14.16%
- 2025-12-02: +13.86%
- 2026-02-10: +13.39%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -29.42%
- 2026-01-26: -18.05%
- 2025-10-08: -12.43%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.