Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Chainlink
51 historical signal(s) detected for Chainlink; 29 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (22 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-22 | $24.1162 | $22.9798 | -4.71% | 95.29 |
| 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-30 | $21.6716 | $21.7255 | +0.25% | 95.52 |
| 2025-10-08 | 2025-10-15 | $21.8340 | $19.1197 | -12.43% | 83.65 |
| 2025-10-15 | 2025-10-22 | $19.1197 | $17.6134 | -7.88% | 77.06 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $17.6134 | $17.8387 | +1.28% | 78.05 |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-11-07 | $16.7905 | $14.7233 | -12.31% | 68.44 |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-11-19 | $15.2975 | $13.7755 | -9.95% | 61.63 |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-11-28 | $12.9302 | $13.3436 | +3.20% | 63.60 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $12.0759 | $13.7499 | +13.86% | 72.41 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $13.6404 | $12.5263 | -8.17% | 66.50 |
| 2026-01-08 | 2026-01-15 | $13.4304 | $14.4182 | +7.35% | 71.39 |
| 2026-01-18 | 2026-01-25 | $13.7355 | $13.4446 | -2.12% | 69.88 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | $12.1012 | $9.9172 | -18.05% | 57.27 |
| 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-13 | $8.2126 | $9.3755 | +14.16% | 65.38 |
| 2026-02-16 | 2026-02-23 | $9.5869 | $9.5031 | -0.87% | 64.80 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $9.5031 | $9.4274 | -0.80% | 64.29 |
| 2026-03-09 | 2026-03-16 | $9.5326 | $10.2480 | +7.50% | 69.11 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $9.8803 | $10.1328 | +2.56% | 70.88 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $9.6516 | $8.6414 | -10.47% | 63.46 |
| 2026-04-03 | 2026-04-10 | $8.6414 | $8.9480 | +3.55% | 65.71 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-20 | $8.7333 | $9.0657 | +3.81% | 68.21 |
| 2026-05-16 | 2026-05-23 | $10.0673 | $9.4113 | -6.52% | 63.77 |
| 2026-05-23 | 2026-05-30 | $9.4113 | $9.0137 | -4.22% | 61.07 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $8.3646 | $7.8339 | -6.34% | 57.20 |
| 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-18 | $7.5592 | $8.0845 | +6.95% | 61.17 |
| 2026-07-28 | 2026-08-04 | $8.3723 | $8.1795 | -2.30% | 59.76 |
| 2026-08-29 | 2026-09-05 | $11.4317 | $11.6313 | +1.75% | 60.81 |
| 2026-09-08 | 2026-09-15 | $12.7430 | $11.5146 | -9.64% | 54.95 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Chainlink · Read the full methodology