Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink After 3 Consecutive Negative Funding Intervals?
Chainlink has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.24% and 52.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -49.3% to -41.4% | 2 |
| -41.4% to -33.5% | 1 |
| -33.5% to -25.6% | 5 |
| -25.6% to -17.7% | 1 |
| -17.7% to -9.8% | 4 |
| -9.8% to -1.9% | 3 |
| -1.9% to +5.9% | 1 |
| +5.9% to +13.8% | 0 |
| +13.8% to +21.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | -0.36% | -0.39% | 36.8% | 11.22% | -6.93% |
| 3 days | 19 | 0.67% | -0.22% | 57.9% | 19.05% | -20.53% |
| 7 days | 19 | 0.24% | -1.46% | 52.6% | 14.16% | -14.03% |
| 14 days | 19 | 0.08% | -2.99% | 52.6% | 19.10% | -29.91% |
| 30 days | 19 | -4.38% | -7.04% | 31.6% | 23.70% | -32.57% |
| 90 days | 18 | -17.97% | -18.91% | 11.1% | 21.72% | -49.25% |
Historical occurrences
19 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | -0.00 | $7.86 | -2.97% | -7.89% | -6.27% | +1.98% | +9.75% | — |
| 2026-05-16 | -0.01 | $10.07 | -3.50% | -4.64% | -6.52% | -10.47% | -18.83% | -11.80% |
| 2026-04-30 | -0.00 | $9.11 | -0.12% | +0.67% | +9.71% | +12.08% | -1.08% | -7.37% |
| 2026-04-09 | -0.00 | $8.85 | +1.09% | +2.45% | +4.68% | +5.03% | +16.91% | -11.18% |
| 2026-04-03 | -0.00 | $8.64 | +0.21% | +2.97% | +3.55% | +11.05% | +6.15% | -14.95% |
| 2026-03-19 | -0.01 | $9.88 | -1.13% | +1.24% | +2.56% | -9.49% | -2.63% | -16.30% |
| 2026-03-08 | -0.00 | $10.16 | -6.16% | -3.72% | +1.23% | -1.54% | -13.31% | -27.54% |
| 2026-02-28 | -0.00 | $9.62 | -1.56% | +0.18% | +0.97% | +0.08% | -12.59% | -6.54% |
| 2026-02-23 | -0.00 | $9.50 | -3.94% | +2.42% | -0.80% | +0.31% | +4.76% | +0.51% |
| 2026-02-19 | -0.00 | $9.80 | -0.16% | +2.98% | -0.65% | +0.79% | -6.89% | -3.65% |
| 2026-02-06 | -0.00 | $8.21 | +11.22% | +19.05% | +14.16% | +19.10% | +23.70% | +21.72% |
| 2026-01-24 | -0.00 | $13.03 | +3.17% | -3.13% | -14.03% | -29.91% | -27.08% | -28.25% |
| 2026-01-19 | -0.00 | $13.62 | -2.60% | -5.69% | -11.16% | -27.20% | -26.61% | -31.84% |
| 2025-12-22 | -0.00 | $12.45 | +0.99% | -1.43% | +0.24% | +8.21% | +1.79% | -19.63% |
| 2025-12-06 | -0.00 | $13.59 | +2.37% | +1.15% | +0.35% | -7.85% | -0.93% | -27.43% |
| 2025-12-01 | -0.00 | $12.97 | -6.93% | +13.04% | +5.12% | +2.41% | -4.38% | -26.98% |
| 2025-10-08 | -0.00 | $21.83 | +3.64% | -20.53% | -12.43% | -19.33% | -32.57% | -36.22% |
| 2025-09-20 | -0.01 | $23.51 | -0.71% | -7.83% | -10.45% | -4.19% | -26.52% | -49.25% |
| 2025-09-16 | -0.01 | $23.57 | -0.36% | +4.60% | -8.07% | -7.84% | -23.40% | -43.64% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +14.16%
- 2026-04-30: +9.71%
- 2025-12-01: +5.12%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-24: -14.03%
- 2025-10-08: -12.43%
- 2026-01-19: -11.16%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded at the 3rd consecutive negative funding interval. A longer uninterrupted run remains one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.