Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink After a 10% Seven-Day Drop?
Chainlink has recorded 15 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.61% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -14.8% to -11.5% | 2 |
| -11.5% to -8.2% | 1 |
| -8.2% to -5.0% | 0 |
| -5.0% to -1.7% | 3 |
| -1.7% to +1.5% | 3 |
| +1.5% to +4.8% | 3 |
| +4.8% to +8.0% | 2 |
| +8.0% to +11.3% | 0 |
| +11.3% to +14.6% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 16 | -0.62% | -1.07% | 37.5% | 4.32% | -8.06% |
| 3 days | 15 | -1.22% | -0.68% | 46.7% | 14.57% | -14.77% |
| 7 days | 15 | -1.61% | -3.31% | 33.3% | 13.39% | -29.42% |
| 14 days | 15 | -4.01% | -4.13% | 33.3% | 8.92% | -21.78% |
| 30 days | 15 | -7.31% | -6.98% | 20.0% | 10.44% | -24.06% |
| 90 days | 15 | -22.78% | -12.95% | 20.0% | 38.76% | -39.27% |
Historical occurrences
17 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -13.02 | $10.88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-14 | -15.32 | $11.21 | +2.73% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-05 | -10.99 | $8.01 | -8.06% | -1.22% | -1.61% | -0.02% | -0.07% | +38.76% |
| 2026-06-03 | -10.79 | $8.36 | -0.44% | -12.00% | -6.34% | -1.14% | -7.49% | +35.32% |
| 2026-05-18 | -10.72 | $9.56 | +0.40% | +0.65% | -1.43% | -4.45% | -13.52% | -1.05% |
| 2026-03-29 | -15.60 | $8.44 | -0.35% | +3.88% | +3.03% | +7.42% | +10.44% | -13.02% |
| 2026-02-10 | -13.10 | $8.85 | -3.09% | +5.99% | +13.39% | +3.20% | +1.81% | +21.07% |
| 2026-01-30 | -10.27 | $11.64 | -3.72% | -14.77% | -29.42% | -19.42% | -18.58% | -21.69% |
| 2026-01-26 | -11.16 | $12.10 | +4.32% | +4.21% | -18.05% | -19.21% | -24.06% | -22.78% |
| 2026-01-21 | -12.03 | $12.67 | +1.40% | +2.86% | +0.51% | -21.78% | -22.79% | -26.69% |
| 2025-12-17 | -10.35 | $12.92 | -5.17% | -3.08% | -4.09% | -4.01% | +9.30% | -20.59% |
| 2025-11-20 | -10.75 | $13.51 | -4.32% | -9.94% | -0.45% | +8.54% | -7.31% | -26.02% |
| 2025-11-17 | -13.74 | $13.74 | -3.09% | -1.61% | -8.88% | -5.54% | -5.91% | -27.47% |
| 2025-11-15 | -12.57 | $13.82 | +2.21% | -3.67% | -12.30% | -4.96% | -3.84% | -32.15% |
| 2025-11-04 | -16.34 | $15.23 | -3.37% | -3.34% | +7.40% | -12.62% | -3.71% | -34.89% |
| 2025-10-11 | -22.99 | $17.35 | -0.79% | +14.57% | -4.21% | +3.11% | -8.23% | -23.82% |
| 2025-09-26 | -18.08 | $20.20 | +4.24% | +7.30% | +12.78% | +8.92% | -10.80% | -39.27% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-10: +13.39%
- 2025-09-26: +12.78%
- 2025-11-04: +7.40%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -29.42%
- 2026-01-26: -18.05%
- 2025-11-15: -12.30%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.