Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 10% Seven-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 10% seven-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Chainlink
17 historical signal(s) detected for Chainlink; 13 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (4 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
2 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $20.2012 | $22.7837 | +12.78% | 112.78 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $17.3508 | $16.6196 | -4.21% | 108.03 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $15.2322 | $16.3589 | +7.40% | 116.02 |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-22 | $13.8180 | $12.1179 | -12.30% | 101.75 |
| 2025-12-17 | 2025-12-24 | $12.9239 | $12.3952 | -4.09% | 97.59 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $12.6694 | $12.7337 | +0.51% | 98.08 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $11.6356 | $8.2126 | -29.42% | 69.23 |
| 2026-02-10 | 2026-02-17 | $8.8459 | $10.0301 | +13.39% | 78.49 |
| 2026-03-29 | 2026-04-05 | $8.4420 | $8.6977 | +3.03% | 80.87 |
| 2026-05-18 | 2026-05-25 | $9.5620 | $9.4250 | -1.43% | 79.71 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $8.3646 | $7.8339 | -6.34% | 74.66 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Chainlink · Read the full methodology