Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano When Bitcoin Drops 5% in a Day?
Cardano has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -4.61% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -24.1% to -20.5% | 1 |
| -20.5% to -16.8% | 0 |
| -16.8% to -13.2% | 2 |
| -13.2% to -9.5% | 0 |
| -9.5% to -5.9% | 1 |
| -5.9% to -2.2% | 1 |
| -2.2% to +1.4% | 0 |
| +1.4% to +5.1% | 0 |
| +5.1% to +8.8% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | -3.35% | -1.18% | 16.7% | 11.48% | -5.85% |
| 3 days | 6 | -2.22% | -2.25% | 50.0% | 16.85% | -26.34% |
| 7 days | 6 | -4.61% | -7.72% | 33.3% | 11.46% | -26.56% |
| 14 days | 6 | 2.41% | -2.23% | 66.7% | 14.43% | -19.00% |
| 30 days | 6 | -11.40% | -9.70% | 16.7% | 8.76% | -24.14% |
| 90 days | 6 | -23.57% | -20.01% | 16.7% | 5.13% | -37.73% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -6.44 | $0.21 | -5.85% | -26.34% | -22.33% | -19.00% | -24.14% | -7.00% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $0.25 | +11.48% | +16.85% | +11.46% | +14.43% | +8.76% | +5.13% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $0.30 | -1.97% | +1.09% | -7.45% | +4.49% | -5.03% | -17.85% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $0.35 | -4.72% | -14.36% | -26.56% | -18.14% | -14.99% | -29.29% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $0.43 | -5.44% | -5.52% | +0.29% | +1.61% | -13.75% | -33.29% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $0.64 | -0.60% | +14.77% | -1.76% | +3.21% | -9.06% | -37.73% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +11.46%
- 2025-11-21: +0.29%
- 2025-10-11: -1.76%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -26.56%
- 2026-06-03: -22.33%
- 2026-02-01: -7.45%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.