Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano After Negative Funding?
Cardano has recorded 56 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -4.28% and 28.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -42.6% to -34.4% | 7 |
| -34.4% to -26.2% | 2 |
| -26.2% to -18.0% | 6 |
| -18.0% to -9.7% | 8 |
| -9.7% to -1.5% | 13 |
| -1.5% to +6.7% | 6 |
| +6.7% to +14.9% | 9 |
| +14.9% to +23.2% | 0 |
| +23.2% to +31.4% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 56 | -0.84% | -0.81% | 37.5% | 8.81% | -7.46% |
| 3 days | 56 | -1.84% | -1.56% | 39.3% | 14.77% | -18.57% |
| 7 days | 56 | -4.28% | -4.55% | 28.6% | 19.57% | -32.71% |
| 14 days | 54 | -4.58% | -5.20% | 35.2% | 17.31% | -28.86% |
| 30 days | 52 | -7.25% | -9.68% | 30.8% | 31.38% | -42.65% |
| 90 days | 46 | -32.06% | -30.34% | 4.3% | 24.40% | -57.90% |
Historical occurrences
56 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | -0.00 | $0.22 | -3.42% | -6.00% | -10.96% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-05 | -0.01 | $0.21 | +3.34% | +4.35% | -2.36% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-30 | -0.00 | $0.20 | -4.55% | -2.60% | +8.14% | +2.72% | — | — |
| 2026-08-27 | -0.00 | $0.21 | +0.67% | -4.96% | -5.36% | -0.23% | — | — |
| 2026-08-14 | -0.00 | $0.18 | -1.24% | -4.08% | +9.17% | +17.31% | +13.76% | — |
| 2026-08-12 | -0.01 | $0.19 | -2.41% | -3.72% | -6.71% | +11.84% | +9.44% | — |
| 2026-08-07 | -0.00 | $0.20 | -0.11% | -3.28% | -9.34% | -1.02% | +8.59% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | -0.00 | $0.17 | -3.42% | -5.55% | -7.10% | +9.60% | +31.38% | — |
| 2026-07-20 | -0.00 | $0.17 | +2.13% | +5.02% | -0.11% | +14.05% | +5.03% | — |
| 2026-07-07 | -0.01 | $0.18 | -5.10% | -9.52% | -14.46% | -7.83% | +3.89% | — |
| 2026-06-16 | -0.01 | $0.18 | -3.48% | -8.38% | -11.28% | -18.44% | -7.54% | +14.10% |
| 2026-06-12 | -0.00 | $0.17 | -0.42% | +7.37% | -3.99% | -15.66% | -2.76% | +24.40% |
| 2026-05-30 | -0.00 | $0.23 | +1.30% | -0.84% | -32.71% | -27.14% | -38.29% | -8.16% |
| 2026-05-12 | -0.00 | $0.28 | -3.23% | -3.50% | -10.19% | -13.11% | -42.65% | -30.56% |
| 2026-05-10 | -0.01 | $0.27 | +4.23% | -0.01% | -5.87% | -9.28% | -37.15% | -25.90% |
| 2026-04-30 | -0.00 | $0.24 | +0.65% | +2.27% | +9.20% | +8.23% | -4.83% | -33.85% |
| 2026-04-26 | -0.00 | $0.25 | +0.75% | -1.42% | -0.08% | +8.23% | -2.82% | -34.57% |
| 2026-04-23 | -0.01 | $0.25 | +0.58% | +0.75% | -1.57% | +7.48% | -2.48% | -30.17% |
| 2026-04-18 | -0.01 | $0.26 | -3.69% | -4.15% | -3.25% | -4.09% | -2.63% | -37.91% |
| 2026-04-15 | -0.02 | $0.24 | +2.71% | +7.87% | +4.10% | +2.85% | +12.60% | -34.42% |
| 2026-04-11 | -0.01 | $0.25 | -1.79% | -2.08% | +1.87% | -1.44% | +11.16% | -34.49% |
| 2026-04-09 | -0.01 | $0.25 | +1.53% | -0.35% | -1.58% | -0.77% | +9.22% | -30.28% |
| 2026-04-07 | -0.00 | $0.25 | +7.43% | +3.49% | +1.27% | +0.98% | +8.72% | -22.91% |
| 2026-04-05 | -0.00 | $0.25 | +2.80% | +6.44% | +0.64% | +0.53% | +0.78% | -27.50% |
| 2026-03-26 | -0.00 | $0.28 | -5.13% | -13.44% | -12.40% | -11.84% | -11.84% | -46.74% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-12-30: +19.57%
- 2026-04-30: +9.20%
- 2026-08-14: +9.17%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-05-30: -32.71%
- 2025-11-16: -19.72%
- 2026-01-29: -19.21%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is below 0%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.