Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano After Funding Rises to +0.01%?
Cardano has recorded 57 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.25% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -36.1% to -30.3% | 1 |
| -30.3% to -24.6% | 2 |
| -24.6% to -18.9% | 5 |
| -18.9% to -13.1% | 9 |
| -13.1% to -7.4% | 8 |
| -7.4% to -1.7% | 7 |
| -1.7% to +4.1% | 12 |
| +4.1% to +9.8% | 6 |
| +9.8% to +15.5% | 7 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 58 | 0.11% | 0.74% | 51.7% | 11.89% | -9.15% |
| 3 days | 57 | -0.72% | -0.46% | 43.9% | 24.67% | -26.34% |
| 7 days | 57 | -3.25% | -2.58% | 33.3% | 21.09% | -22.93% |
| 14 days | 57 | -5.35% | -5.46% | 31.6% | 15.54% | -36.06% |
| 30 days | 55 | -17.42% | -13.83% | 23.6% | 32.14% | -39.33% |
| 90 days | 49 | -34.80% | -32.58% | 4.1% | 36.63% | -57.90% |
Historical occurrences
58 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | 0.01 | $0.20 | +2.40% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-02 | 0.01 | $0.20 | +2.23% | +7.43% | +11.60% | -0.63% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 0.01 | $0.19 | +6.39% | +20.89% | +13.56% | +7.47% | — | — |
| 2026-08-09 | 0.01 | $0.20 | -2.47% | -6.23% | -11.58% | +13.41% | +10.56% | — |
| 2026-07-29 | 0.01 | $0.16 | +0.12% | +3.86% | +19.19% | +15.54% | +32.14% | — |
| 2026-07-21 | 0.01 | $0.17 | +2.34% | -0.69% | -8.34% | +14.13% | +10.28% | — |
| 2026-07-18 | 0.01 | $0.17 | -0.06% | +1.70% | -1.75% | +0.78% | +4.84% | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 0.01 | $0.17 | +0.10% | -2.69% | -3.46% | +1.17% | +19.76% | — |
| 2026-07-01 | 0.01 | $0.14 | +6.65% | +24.67% | +21.09% | +14.71% | +17.66% | — |
| 2026-06-15 | 0.01 | $0.18 | -2.41% | -8.84% | -14.40% | -21.46% | -9.55% | +13.37% |
| 2026-06-11 | 0.01 | $0.16 | +6.07% | +6.90% | +3.82% | -7.46% | +3.76% | +36.63% |
| 2026-06-03 | 0.01 | $0.21 | -5.85% | -26.34% | -22.33% | -19.00% | -24.14% | -7.00% |
| 2026-05-24 | 0.01 | $0.25 | -1.50% | -2.43% | -4.08% | -36.06% | -35.59% | -6.81% |
| 2026-05-22 | 0.01 | $0.25 | -3.15% | -3.24% | -6.23% | -28.21% | -34.81% | -25.26% |
| 2026-05-19 | 0.01 | $0.25 | -1.36% | -0.50% | -3.25% | -8.22% | -33.71% | -30.49% |
| 2026-05-14 | 0.01 | $0.26 | +2.06% | -3.65% | -5.93% | -10.51% | -35.93% | -29.38% |
| 2026-05-01 | 0.01 | $0.25 | +0.84% | +1.32% | +6.75% | +9.75% | -4.22% | -34.20% |
| 2026-04-29 | 0.01 | $0.25 | -0.90% | +0.59% | +6.19% | +9.78% | -4.93% | -37.02% |
| 2026-04-24 | 0.01 | $0.25 | +0.20% | +0.93% | -1.50% | +5.15% | -1.65% | -30.23% |
| 2026-04-22 | 0.01 | $0.25 | -0.52% | +0.25% | -1.20% | +4.92% | +0.17% | -32.12% |
| 2026-04-16 | 0.01 | $0.25 | +5.30% | +1.14% | +0.82% | -0.76% | +6.09% | -32.89% |
| 2026-04-08 | 0.01 | $0.26 | -5.12% | -3.73% | -9.08% | -5.35% | -0.43% | -30.30% |
| 2026-03-30 | 0.01 | $0.24 | +1.46% | +3.70% | +6.23% | -1.49% | +2.85% | -39.53% |
| 2026-03-25 | 0.01 | $0.28 | -0.27% | -13.49% | -14.95% | -7.34% | -12.25% | -44.41% |
| 2026-03-16 | 0.01 | $0.29 | +3.39% | -1.20% | -7.30% | -17.42% | -17.42% | -40.93% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-07-01: +21.09%
- 2026-07-29: +19.19%
- 2026-08-20: +13.56%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-25: -22.93%
- 2026-06-03: -22.33%
- 2025-11-17: -15.63%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is at or above 0.01%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.