Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano After a 5% One-Day Drop?
Cardano has recorded 31 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.47% and 35.5% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -8.6% to -6.2% | 1 |
| -6.2% to -3.9% | 5 |
| -3.9% to -1.6% | 5 |
| -1.6% to +0.8% | 5 |
| +0.8% to +3.1% | 8 |
| +3.1% to +5.4% | 3 |
| +5.4% to +7.8% | 1 |
| +7.8% to +10.1% | 1 |
| +10.1% to +12.4% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 31 | -0.48% | 0.57% | 48.4% | 12.41% | -8.56% |
| 3 days | 31 | 0.38% | -0.33% | 51.6% | 16.85% | -26.34% |
| 7 days | 31 | -2.47% | -2.89% | 35.5% | 24.51% | -26.56% |
| 14 days | 31 | -1.28% | -3.53% | 41.9% | 26.32% | -24.13% |
| 30 days | 29 | -8.81% | -7.81% | 24.1% | 36.63% | -35.20% |
| 90 days | 27 | -33.29% | -31.59% | 7.4% | 5.13% | -55.65% |
Historical occurrences
32 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -6.32 | $0.20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -5.00 | $0.20 | -0.61% | -2.63% | +4.00% | +1.55% | — | — |
| 2026-08-26 | -5.57 | $0.21 | +1.57% | -2.86% | -5.97% | +4.94% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -6.29 | $0.16 | +4.09% | +9.15% | +24.51% | +22.68% | +36.63% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | -5.10 | $0.17 | -4.38% | -4.57% | -5.26% | -0.61% | +15.13% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | -7.87 | $0.21 | -5.85% | -26.34% | -22.33% | -19.00% | -24.14% | -7.00% |
| 2026-04-13 | -5.28 | $0.24 | +5.25% | +4.27% | +2.69% | +6.71% | +14.62% | -29.94% |
| 2026-04-09 | -5.12 | $0.25 | +1.53% | -0.35% | -1.58% | -0.77% | +9.22% | -30.28% |
| 2026-03-27 | -5.13 | $0.27 | -8.56% | -10.96% | -10.95% | -5.65% | -7.10% | -44.85% |
| 2026-03-23 | -6.53 | $0.27 | +2.71% | +5.45% | -10.92% | -5.37% | -7.27% | -39.45% |
| 2026-03-21 | -6.08 | $0.27 | +8.26% | +3.94% | -7.43% | -7.38% | -8.81% | -38.57% |
| 2026-03-19 | -5.93 | $0.29 | -1.28% | +0.38% | -1.06% | -13.33% | -9.85% | -40.01% |
| 2026-02-23 | -6.11 | $0.28 | -1.34% | +9.30% | +1.91% | -5.30% | +0.64% | -13.15% |
| 2026-02-16 | -7.46 | $0.29 | +5.35% | -1.27% | -3.13% | -1.28% | +4.45% | -12.71% |
| 2026-02-10 | -8.95 | $0.27 | -2.94% | +4.77% | +13.90% | +3.31% | -2.76% | +4.50% |
| 2026-02-06 | -15.26 | $0.25 | +11.48% | +16.85% | +11.46% | +14.43% | +8.76% | +5.13% |
| 2026-02-01 | -8.31 | $0.30 | -1.97% | +1.09% | -7.45% | +4.49% | -5.03% | -17.85% |
| 2026-01-30 | -6.78 | $0.35 | -4.72% | -14.36% | -26.56% | -18.14% | -14.99% | -29.29% |
| 2026-01-26 | -9.15 | $0.36 | +2.33% | +4.18% | -16.84% | -16.66% | -22.38% | -29.72% |
| 2026-01-01 | -5.04 | $0.33 | +7.06% | +16.68% | +20.64% | +26.32% | -1.11% | -27.31% |
| 2025-12-12 | -6.23 | $0.43 | -3.80% | -6.76% | -17.37% | -19.31% | -4.77% | -38.20% |
| 2025-12-06 | -5.38 | $0.42 | -0.48% | +3.93% | -1.61% | -9.49% | -3.34% | -30.99% |
| 2025-12-02 | -7.02 | $0.39 | +12.41% | +13.93% | +12.04% | +0.60% | -13.59% | -25.21% |
| 2025-11-21 | -6.52 | $0.43 | -5.44% | -5.52% | +0.29% | +1.61% | -13.75% | -33.29% |
| 2025-11-15 | -5.97 | $0.50 | +1.07% | -6.53% | -17.90% | -15.57% | -20.39% | -43.15% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-07-28: +24.51%
- 2026-01-01: +20.64%
- 2026-02-10: +13.90%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -26.56%
- 2026-06-03: -22.33%
- 2025-11-15: -17.90%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.