Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano After a 10% One-Day Drop?
Cardano has recorded 3 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.76% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
Not enough completed data yet for a distribution chart.
All forward horizons
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Historical occurrences
3 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | -10.27 | $0.18 | -12.81% | -8.11% | -5.19% | -8.98% | +6.89% | +11.88% |
| 2026-02-06 | -15.26 | $0.25 | +11.48% | +16.85% | +11.46% | +14.43% | +8.76% | +5.13% |
| 2025-10-11 | -22.02 | $0.64 | -0.60% | +14.77% | -1.76% | +3.21% | -9.06% | -37.73% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +11.46%
- 2025-10-11: -1.76%
- 2026-06-05: -5.19%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-05: -5.19%
- 2025-10-11: -1.76%
- 2026-02-06: +11.46%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.