Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano After a 3% One-Day Drop?
Cardano has recorded 65 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.76% and 40.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -37.1% to -28.9% | 9 |
| -28.9% to -20.7% | 9 |
| -20.7% to -12.5% | 9 |
| -12.5% to -4.4% | 10 |
| -4.4% to +3.8% | 7 |
| +3.8% to +12.0% | 10 |
| +12.0% to +20.2% | 5 |
| +20.2% to +28.4% | 0 |
| +28.4% to +36.6% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 66 | -0.61% | 0.06% | 42.4% | 12.41% | -8.56% |
| 3 days | 66 | -0.18% | -0.65% | 48.5% | 16.85% | -26.34% |
| 7 days | 65 | -1.76% | -2.37% | 40.0% | 24.51% | -26.56% |
| 14 days | 64 | -5.12% | -4.00% | 37.5% | 26.32% | -35.36% |
| 30 days | 61 | -9.06% | -8.71% | 32.8% | 36.63% | -37.14% |
| 90 days | 55 | -33.29% | -30.65% | 7.3% | 33.43% | -60.54% |
Historical occurrences
67 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -6.32 | $0.20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | -3.42 | $0.21 | -3.45% | -2.15% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-05 | -4.49 | $0.21 | +3.34% | +4.35% | -2.36% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | -4.55 | $0.19 | +2.64% | +4.32% | +15.91% | +5.70% | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -5.00 | $0.20 | -0.61% | -2.63% | +4.00% | +1.55% | — | — |
| 2026-08-26 | -5.57 | $0.21 | +1.57% | -2.86% | -5.97% | +4.94% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -6.29 | $0.16 | +4.09% | +9.15% | +24.51% | +22.68% | +36.63% | — |
| 2026-07-24 | -3.42 | $0.17 | -2.73% | -1.51% | +0.74% | +19.36% | +34.24% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | -5.10 | $0.17 | -4.38% | -4.57% | -5.26% | -0.61% | +15.13% | — |
| 2026-06-26 | -3.34 | $0.14 | +3.19% | -0.01% | +12.29% | +15.88% | +14.65% | — |
| 2026-06-24 | -4.45 | $0.15 | -1.77% | -2.03% | -4.69% | +15.41% | +11.32% | — |
| 2026-06-22 | -4.03 | $0.16 | +1.14% | -5.07% | -8.25% | +20.98% | +10.85% | — |
| 2026-06-17 | -3.48 | $0.17 | -3.22% | -5.96% | -12.17% | -16.29% | -6.71% | +21.05% |
| 2026-06-10 | -3.02 | $0.17 | -2.78% | +2.68% | +4.29% | -8.41% | +0.78% | +33.43% |
| 2026-06-03 | -7.87 | $0.21 | -5.85% | -26.34% | -22.33% | -19.00% | -24.14% | -7.00% |
| 2026-05-23 | -3.15 | $0.24 | +1.44% | +0.40% | -3.95% | -35.36% | -35.40% | -17.90% |
| 2026-05-16 | -3.22 | $0.26 | -2.46% | -3.83% | -7.33% | -10.98% | -30.07% | -30.31% |
| 2026-05-13 | -3.23 | $0.27 | -2.30% | -3.49% | -8.45% | -11.47% | -37.14% | -29.62% |
| 2026-04-19 | -3.69 | $0.25 | -2.62% | +0.21% | +0.43% | +0.35% | +0.88% | -33.11% |
| 2026-04-15 | -3.55 | $0.24 | +2.71% | +7.87% | +4.10% | +2.85% | +12.60% | -34.42% |
| 2026-04-13 | -5.28 | $0.24 | +5.25% | +4.27% | +2.69% | +6.71% | +14.62% | -29.94% |
| 2026-04-09 | -5.12 | $0.25 | +1.53% | -0.35% | -1.58% | -0.77% | +9.22% | -30.28% |
| 2026-04-07 | -3.62 | $0.25 | +7.43% | +3.49% | +1.27% | +0.98% | +8.72% | -22.91% |
| 2026-04-03 | -3.56 | $0.24 | +2.74% | +6.22% | +5.95% | +8.15% | +4.24% | -35.92% |
| 2026-03-27 | -5.13 | $0.27 | -8.56% | -10.96% | -10.95% | -5.65% | -7.10% | -44.85% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-07-28: +24.51%
- 2026-01-01: +20.64%
- 2025-12-30: +19.57%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -26.56%
- 2025-10-05: -24.76%
- 2026-06-03: -22.33%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.