Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Cardano
67 historical signal(s) detected for Cardano; 34 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (33 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-22 | $0.8882 | $0.8845 | -0.41% | 99.59 |
| 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-30 | $0.8259 | $0.8055 | -2.47% | 97.13 |
| 2025-10-05 | 2025-10-12 | $0.8401 | $0.6321 | -24.76% | 73.08 |
| 2025-10-15 | 2025-10-22 | $0.6994 | $0.6426 | -8.12% | 67.14 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $0.6426 | $0.6460 | +0.52% | 67.49 |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-11-05 | $0.6460 | $0.5214 | -19.29% | 54.48 |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-11-19 | $0.5556 | $0.4749 | -14.53% | 46.56 |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-11-28 | $0.4325 | $0.4338 | +0.29% | 46.70 |
| 2025-11-29 | 2025-12-06 | $0.4205 | $0.4158 | -1.12% | 46.17 |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-13 | $0.4158 | $0.4091 | -1.61% | 45.43 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-22 | $0.3965 | $0.3663 | -7.64% | 41.96 |
| 2025-12-26 | 2026-01-02 | $0.3432 | $0.3568 | +3.98% | 43.63 |
| 2026-01-08 | 2026-01-15 | $0.4021 | $0.4210 | +4.71% | 45.68 |
| 2026-01-16 | 2026-01-23 | $0.4038 | $0.3750 | -7.13% | 42.43 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | $0.3562 | $0.2962 | -16.84% | 35.28 |
| 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-13 | $0.2541 | $0.2832 | +11.46% | 39.33 |
| 2026-02-16 | 2026-02-23 | $0.2922 | $0.2831 | -3.13% | 38.09 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $0.2831 | $0.2885 | +1.91% | 38.82 |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-14 | $0.2766 | $0.2788 | +0.81% | 39.14 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $0.2871 | $0.2841 | -1.06% | 38.72 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $0.2695 | $0.2400 | -10.95% | 34.48 |
| 2026-04-03 | 2026-04-10 | $0.2400 | $0.2543 | +5.95% | 36.54 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-20 | $0.2364 | $0.2428 | +2.69% | 37.52 |
| 2026-05-13 | 2026-05-20 | $0.2710 | $0.2481 | -8.45% | 34.35 |
| 2026-05-23 | 2026-05-30 | $0.2423 | $0.2328 | -3.95% | 32.99 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $0.2127 | $0.1652 | -22.33% | 25.63 |
| 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-17 | $0.1652 | $0.1723 | +4.29% | 26.73 |
| 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-24 | $0.1723 | $0.1513 | -12.17% | 23.47 |
| 2026-06-24 | 2026-07-01 | $0.1513 | $0.1442 | -4.69% | 22.37 |
| 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-15 | $0.1746 | $0.1654 | -5.26% | 21.19 |
| 2026-07-24 | 2026-07-31 | $0.1684 | $0.1697 | +0.74% | 21.35 |
| 2026-08-26 | 2026-09-02 | $0.2091 | $0.1966 | -5.97% | 20.08 |
| 2026-09-05 | 2026-09-12 | $0.2112 | $0.2062 | -2.36% | 19.60 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.