Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano After a 15% Seven-Day Drop?
Cardano has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -5.84% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -16.7% to -14.2% | 4 |
| -14.2% to -11.7% | 0 |
| -11.7% to -9.2% | 0 |
| -9.2% to -6.7% | 1 |
| -6.7% to -4.1% | 1 |
| -4.1% to -1.6% | 2 |
| -1.6% to +0.9% | 0 |
| +0.9% to +3.4% | 1 |
| +3.4% to +5.9% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 12 | -2.77% | -2.49% | 25.0% | 3.76% | -10.27% |
| 3 days | 12 | -3.00% | -2.41% | 41.7% | 14.77% | -21.49% |
| 7 days | 12 | -5.84% | -3.13% | 33.3% | 15.91% | -19.79% |
| 14 days | 12 | -3.58% | -5.20% | 33.3% | 5.92% | -16.73% |
| 30 days | 11 | -15.03% | -13.08% | 9.1% | 4.74% | -25.53% |
| 90 days | 11 | -34.80% | -30.53% | 0.0% | -1.80% | -53.71% |
Historical occurrences
12 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | -15.06 | $0.19 | +2.64% | +4.32% | +15.91% | +5.70% | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | -15.49 | $0.20 | -10.27% | -21.49% | -19.79% | -16.73% | -10.21% | -1.80% |
| 2026-02-04 | -18.96 | $0.31 | -1.87% | -7.29% | -14.12% | -2.83% | -6.08% | -18.20% |
| 2026-02-01 | -22.93 | $0.30 | -1.97% | +1.09% | -7.45% | +4.49% | -5.03% | -17.85% |
| 2026-01-21 | -15.29 | $0.36 | +3.76% | +3.00% | +3.37% | -16.23% | -20.28% | -31.97% |
| 2025-12-17 | -18.02 | $0.39 | -4.89% | -2.38% | -5.85% | -8.96% | +4.74% | -22.07% |
| 2025-11-20 | -15.06 | $0.46 | -6.52% | -12.64% | -5.82% | -2.65% | -18.65% | -35.83% |
| 2025-11-17 | -16.26 | $0.48 | -3.87% | -4.48% | -15.63% | -14.34% | -20.40% | -34.80% |
| 2025-11-04 | -17.31 | $0.55 | -5.47% | -3.63% | +7.39% | -15.59% | -18.34% | -46.29% |
| 2025-10-16 | -20.27 | $0.67 | -3.57% | -5.17% | -6.83% | -4.34% | -25.53% | -35.63% |
| 2025-10-11 | -26.63 | $0.64 | -0.60% | +14.77% | -1.76% | +3.21% | -9.06% | -37.73% |
| 2025-09-26 | -16.83 | $0.77 | +2.77% | +4.97% | +13.08% | +5.92% | -15.03% | -53.71% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-31: +15.91%
- 2025-09-26: +13.08%
- 2025-11-04: +7.39%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-04: -19.79%
- 2025-11-17: -15.63%
- 2026-02-04: -14.12%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -15%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.