Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano After a 10% Seven-Day Drop?
Cardano has recorded 17 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.61% and 52.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -22.3% to -16.3% | 2 |
| -16.3% to -10.2% | 1 |
| -10.2% to -4.1% | 3 |
| -4.1% to +2.0% | 4 |
| +2.0% to +8.0% | 4 |
| +8.0% to +14.1% | 1 |
| +14.1% to +20.2% | 0 |
| +20.2% to +26.3% | 0 |
| +26.3% to +32.3% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 17 | -1.01% | -1.91% | 23.5% | 3.76% | -9.67% |
| 3 days | 17 | -2.63% | -3.21% | 17.6% | 14.77% | -26.34% |
| 7 days | 17 | 0.61% | 0.70% | 52.9% | 32.34% | -22.33% |
| 14 days | 17 | 1.49% | -1.59% | 52.9% | 20.98% | -20.68% |
| 30 days | 16 | -10.77% | -8.24% | 37.5% | 15.14% | -31.66% |
| 90 days | 12 | -32.86% | -31.26% | 8.3% | 4.50% | -55.33% |
Historical occurrences
18 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -10.96 | $0.20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -11.35 | $0.20 | -0.61% | -2.63% | +4.00% | +1.55% | — | — |
| 2026-08-15 | -10.37 | $0.18 | -2.07% | -3.26% | +27.29% | +12.84% | +13.15% | — |
| 2026-07-12 | -13.75 | $0.17 | -2.20% | -0.13% | +0.61% | -0.56% | +15.14% | — |
| 2026-06-28 | -11.05 | $0.15 | -1.01% | -0.62% | +32.34% | +14.14% | +7.12% | — |
| 2026-06-22 | -14.40 | $0.16 | +1.14% | -5.07% | -8.25% | +20.98% | +10.85% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | -11.34 | $0.21 | -5.85% | -26.34% | -22.33% | -19.00% | -24.14% | -7.00% |
| 2026-05-18 | -10.77 | $0.25 | -0.22% | -1.19% | -3.93% | -6.57% | -31.66% | -30.07% |
| 2026-03-29 | -14.68 | $0.25 | -2.41% | -1.48% | +0.84% | +1.49% | +0.96% | -39.72% |
| 2026-02-10 | -13.04 | $0.27 | -2.94% | +4.77% | +13.90% | +3.31% | -2.76% | +4.50% |
| 2026-01-31 | -12.26 | $0.33 | -8.31% | -5.69% | -14.07% | -11.61% | -12.48% | -25.31% |
| 2026-01-21 | -15.29 | $0.36 | +3.76% | +3.00% | +3.37% | -16.23% | -20.28% | -31.97% |
| 2025-12-16 | -10.21 | $0.39 | -0.64% | -9.43% | -4.52% | -9.07% | +8.50% | -25.11% |
| 2025-11-26 | -11.23 | $0.42 | +3.36% | -0.24% | +2.85% | +11.55% | -18.59% | -33.76% |
| 2025-11-15 | -13.84 | $0.50 | +1.07% | -6.53% | -17.90% | -15.57% | -20.39% | -43.15% |
| 2025-11-03 | -10.37 | $0.61 | -9.67% | -10.67% | -5.29% | -20.68% | -28.99% | -50.51% |
| 2025-10-11 | -26.63 | $0.64 | -0.60% | +14.77% | -1.76% | +3.21% | -9.06% | -37.73% |
| 2025-09-25 | -11.11 | $0.81 | -5.25% | -3.84% | +4.68% | +3.24% | -19.23% | -55.33% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-28: +32.34%
- 2026-08-15: +27.29%
- 2026-02-10: +13.90%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-03: -22.33%
- 2025-11-15: -17.90%
- 2026-01-31: -14.07%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.