Transparent historical data
What Happens to BNB When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day?
BNB has recorded 20 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.72% and 45.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -12.7% to -9.8% | 1 |
| -9.8% to -6.9% | 1 |
| -6.9% to -4.0% | 3 |
| -4.0% to -1.1% | 2 |
| -1.1% to +1.8% | 6 |
| +1.8% to +4.6% | 3 |
| +4.6% to +7.5% | 1 |
| +7.5% to +10.4% | 1 |
| +10.4% to +13.3% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 20 | -0.22% | 0.50% | 35.0% | 6.19% | -3.26% |
| 3 days | 20 | -0.19% | 0.26% | 50.0% | 12.01% | -10.67% |
| 7 days | 20 | -0.72% | 0.90% | 45.0% | 27.27% | -14.82% |
| 14 days | 19 | -0.25% | -0.12% | 47.4% | 13.29% | -12.67% |
| 30 days | 18 | -3.39% | -3.82% | 33.3% | 9.18% | -34.91% |
| 90 days | 17 | -5.73% | -7.48% | 29.4% | 26.91% | -34.70% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $725.08 | -0.50% | +3.81% | -2.30% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $627.05 | +4.39% | +10.89% | +12.83% | +9.76% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 4.34 | $581.35 | -0.22% | -2.34% | -1.34% | -1.82% | +4.95% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.38 | $605.02 | -0.25% | +1.86% | -4.45% | -7.44% | -5.04% | +19.44% |
| 2026-06-08 | 3.97 | $603.90 | -0.39% | -2.93% | +2.05% | -3.34% | -4.52% | +26.91% |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $615.96 | -0.22% | +3.30% | +2.18% | +1.79% | +9.00% | -6.86% |
| 2026-04-08 | 4.35 | $621.12 | -3.26% | -2.46% | -1.05% | +1.70% | +2.57% | -5.73% |
| 2026-03-24 | 4.50 | $639.20 | -0.14% | -1.74% | -4.77% | -6.02% | -0.21% | -8.68% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3.62 | $634.87 | +1.10% | +2.49% | +6.83% | +0.68% | -5.35% | -4.88% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $658.32 | -1.56% | -5.68% | -1.05% | -1.02% | -10.61% | -1.23% |
| 2026-03-03 | 4.54 | $637.43 | -0.64% | +1.67% | -0.40% | +6.40% | -4.16% | +11.35% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $629.06 | -0.55% | -1.80% | +4.65% | +3.55% | -2.61% | +4.25% |
| 2026-02-14 | 3.89 | $618.93 | +2.19% | +1.28% | +1.23% | -0.91% | +9.18% | +9.55% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $654.55 | -1.18% | -2.69% | -5.44% | -4.28% | -6.51% | -2.67% |
| 2026-01-14 | 4.64 | $943.28 | +0.47% | -0.64% | -6.51% | -4.87% | -34.91% | -34.70% |
| 2025-12-20 | 3.09 | $855.80 | -0.22% | +0.26% | -2.52% | +2.99% | +8.28% | -25.31% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $877.02 | +5.03% | +0.75% | +2.32% | -0.25% | -1.58% | -27.32% |
| 2025-11-27 | 3.66 | $892.14 | +0.39% | -2.12% | +3.24% | +0.12% | -6.49% | -34.57% |
| 2025-10-13 | 3.98 | $1303.27 | -0.67% | -10.67% | -14.82% | -12.67% | -26.51% | -30.44% |
| 2025-10-02 | 4.25 | $1027.58 | +6.19% | +12.01% | +27.27% | +13.29% | +5.84% | -16.21% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-10-02: +27.27%
- 2026-08-20: +12.83%
- 2026-03-10: +6.83%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-13: -14.82%
- 2026-01-14: -6.51%
- 2026-02-07: -5.44%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.