Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin rises 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for BNB
20 historical signal(s) detected for BNB; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $1027.5808 | $1307.7583 | +27.27% | 127.27 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $1303.2674 | $1110.1648 | -14.82% | 108.41 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $892.1426 | $921.0904 | +3.24% | 111.93 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $855.7953 | $834.2373 | -2.52% | 109.11 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $943.2812 | $881.8890 | -6.51% | 102.01 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $654.5520 | $618.9261 | -5.44% | 96.45 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $618.9261 | $626.5274 | +1.23% | 97.64 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $629.0621 | $658.3187 | +4.65% | 102.18 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $658.3187 | $651.4124 | -1.05% | 101.11 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $639.1975 | $608.7289 | -4.77% | 96.29 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $621.1198 | $614.5790 | -1.05% | 95.27 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $603.8984 | $616.2914 | +2.05% | 97.23 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $581.3478 | $573.5799 | -1.34% | 95.93 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $627.0534 | $707.4796 | +12.83% | 108.23 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $725.0808 | $708.4278 | -2.30% | 105.75 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.