Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin After 3 Consecutive Negative Funding Intervals?
This study currently has no completed 7-day observations in the locally stored Bitcoin dataset.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -20.2% to -16.6% | 1 |
| -16.6% to -13.0% | 0 |
| -13.0% to -9.4% | 0 |
| -9.4% to -5.8% | 0 |
| -5.8% to -2.2% | 4 |
| -2.2% to +1.4% | 7 |
| +1.4% to +5.0% | 9 |
| +5.0% to +8.5% | 1 |
| +8.5% to +12.1% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
23 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | -0.00 | $66292.50 | -1.02% | -5.12% | -3.55% | -9.26% | -2.38% | +15.88% |
| 2026-06-14 | -0.00 | $64408.81 | +2.02% | +1.88% | -0.24% | -6.92% | -3.31% | +19.86% |
| 2026-06-06 | -0.00 | $60960.10 | -0.17% | +3.46% | +4.22% | +4.15% | +4.31% | +33.31% |
| 2026-05-05 | -0.00 | $79825.88 | +1.36% | +0.25% | +2.26% | -3.59% | -19.77% | -20.45% |
| 2026-04-30 | -0.00 | $75784.96 | +0.68% | +3.82% | +7.46% | +4.62% | -3.01% | -15.71% |
| 2026-04-28 | -0.00 | $77366.78 | -1.34% | -1.38% | +3.18% | +5.51% | -3.91% | -15.54% |
| 2026-04-18 | -0.01 | $77125.73 | -1.83% | -1.64% | +0.42% | +1.40% | +0.39% | -17.29% |
| 2026-04-11 | -0.01 | $72920.25 | +0.14% | +2.14% | +5.77% | +6.21% | +12.48% | -13.34% |
| 2026-04-03 | -0.00 | $66887.51 | -0.10% | +3.16% | +6.70% | +12.30% | +17.63% | -10.35% |
| 2026-04-01 | -0.00 | $68107.47 | -0.22% | -1.89% | +5.22% | +9.09% | +12.02% | -11.68% |
| 2026-03-28 | -0.01 | $66329.88 | +0.09% | +0.54% | +0.74% | +9.94% | +18.56% | -9.96% |
| 2026-03-23 | -0.00 | $67933.43 | +4.50% | +4.96% | -2.92% | +1.57% | +12.35% | -5.42% |
| 2026-03-21 | -0.00 | $70526.29 | -2.98% | +0.65% | -5.95% | -5.25% | +4.70% | -10.82% |
| 2026-03-18 | -0.01 | $74004.69 | -3.76% | -4.70% | -4.70% | -7.97% | +1.50% | -10.42% |
| 2026-03-08 | -0.00 | $67339.67 | -1.93% | +3.73% | +5.66% | +1.61% | +1.98% | -9.47% |
| 2026-03-01 | -0.00 | $67017.08 | -1.78% | +1.90% | +0.48% | +6.17% | -0.49% | +9.67% |
| 2026-02-26 | -0.00 | $67850.11 | -0.52% | -1.23% | +7.23% | +3.21% | -2.24% | +11.79% |
| 2026-02-12 | -0.00 | $67090.58 | -1.24% | +4.04% | -0.99% | +1.13% | +5.59% | +19.96% |
| 2026-02-06 | -0.01 | $62778.22 | +11.94% | +12.14% | +5.54% | +6.69% | +7.27% | +29.72% |
| 2026-02-03 | -0.00 | $78670.59 | -3.87% | -20.20% | -10.80% | -12.47% | -7.52% | -0.20% |
| 2025-11-24 | -0.00 | $86740.12 | +1.75% | +4.35% | +4.17% | +4.22% | +0.87% | -21.57% |
| 2025-10-16 | -0.00 | $110844.40 | -2.41% | -3.28% | -2.93% | -0.74% | -14.50% | -13.91% |
| 2025-09-21 | -0.01 | $115722.90 | -0.40% | -3.21% | -5.23% | +5.79% | -4.48% | -23.88% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-04-30: +7.46%
- 2026-02-26: +7.23%
- 2026-04-03: +6.70%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-03: -10.80%
- 2026-03-21: -5.95%
- 2025-09-21: -5.23%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded at the 3rd consecutive negative funding interval. A longer uninterrupted run remains one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.