Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin After a 15% Seven-Day Drop?
Bitcoin has recorded 2 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.38% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
Not enough completed data yet for a distribution chart.
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 2 | -1.78% | -1.78% | 0.0% | -0.17% | -3.40% |
| 3 days | 2 | -1.81% | -1.81% | 50.0% | 3.46% | -7.08% |
| 7 days | 2 | -2.38% | -2.38% | 50.0% | 4.22% | -8.97% |
| 14 days | 2 | -3.26% | -3.26% | 50.0% | 4.15% | -10.67% |
| 30 days | 2 | -0.99% | -0.99% | 50.0% | 4.31% | -6.29% |
| 90 days | 2 | 19.43% | 19.43% | 100.0% | 33.31% | 5.55% |
Historical occurrences
2 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | -17.06 | $60960.10 | -0.17% | +3.46% | +4.22% | +4.15% | +4.31% | +33.31% |
| 2026-02-04 | -15.16 | $75628.04 | -3.40% | -7.08% | -8.97% | -10.67% | -6.29% | +5.55% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-06: +4.22%
- 2026-02-04: -8.97%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-04: -8.97%
- 2026-06-06: +4.22%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -15%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.