Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin After a 10% Seven-Day Drop?
Bitcoin has recorded 7 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.93% and 14.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -12.0% to -10.4% | 1 |
| -10.4% to -8.9% | 0 |
| -8.9% to -7.4% | 1 |
| -7.4% to -5.9% | 0 |
| -5.9% to -4.4% | 0 |
| -4.4% to -2.9% | 2 |
| -2.9% to -1.4% | 1 |
| -1.4% to +0.1% | 1 |
| +0.1% to +1.6% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 7 | -2.23% | -1.79% | 28.6% | 2.36% | -5.24% |
| 3 days | 7 | -5.58% | -4.71% | 14.3% | 1.69% | -8.64% |
| 7 days | 7 | -2.93% | -3.98% | 14.3% | 1.61% | -11.95% |
| 14 days | 7 | -6.29% | -4.85% | 14.3% | 2.21% | -11.25% |
| 30 days | 7 | -7.85% | -7.76% | 0.0% | -0.21% | -14.50% |
| 90 days | 7 | -13.91% | -7.68% | 28.6% | 17.72% | -26.09% |
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -12.03 | $66727.26 | -4.02% | -8.64% | -7.58% | -1.66% | -7.85% | +17.72% |
| 2026-02-10 | -10.80 | $70175.15 | -1.90% | -5.58% | -1.87% | -7.75% | -0.21% | +16.88% |
| 2026-02-01 | -11.78 | $78647.03 | -2.23% | -3.84% | -11.95% | -11.25% | -12.50% | -0.56% |
| 2025-11-20 | -10.06 | $91408.36 | -5.24% | -7.37% | -0.98% | +2.21% | -3.63% | -26.09% |
| 2025-11-18 | -13.07 | $92100.36 | +0.87% | -5.95% | -4.17% | -6.29% | -6.41% | -25.32% |
| 2025-11-05 | -10.11 | $101480.77 | +2.36% | +1.69% | +1.61% | -8.45% | -9.22% | -22.48% |
| 2025-10-16 | -10.13 | $110844.40 | -2.41% | -3.28% | -2.93% | -0.74% | -14.50% | -13.91% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-05: +1.61%
- 2025-11-20: -0.98%
- 2026-02-10: -1.87%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -11.95%
- 2026-06-03: -7.58%
- 2025-11-18: -4.17%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.