Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin Cash When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day?
Bitcoin Cash has recorded 20 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.42% and 35.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -9.0% to -7.1% | 1 |
| -7.1% to -5.2% | 2 |
| -5.2% to -3.3% | 1 |
| -3.3% to -1.3% | 4 |
| -1.3% to +0.6% | 8 |
| +0.6% to +2.5% | 2 |
| +2.5% to +4.5% | 0 |
| +4.5% to +6.4% | 1 |
| +6.4% to +8.3% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 20 | -0.67% | -0.99% | 35.0% | 8.33% | -9.04% |
| 3 days | 20 | -0.45% | -0.13% | 45.0% | 29.75% | -15.53% |
| 7 days | 20 | -2.42% | -0.60% | 35.0% | 26.01% | -12.77% |
| 14 days | 19 | -1.84% | -1.89% | 47.4% | 14.65% | -17.57% |
| 30 days | 18 | -4.30% | -3.13% | 33.3% | 18.91% | -18.11% |
| 90 days | 17 | -26.43% | -21.87% | 23.5% | 22.77% | -59.47% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $256.60 | -3.30% | +1.61% | -12.77% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $213.28 | +4.55% | +29.75% | +26.01% | +14.65% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 4.34 | $236.61 | -5.73% | -7.11% | -5.43% | -9.50% | -12.74% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.38 | $205.15 | -1.51% | +2.64% | -2.75% | -6.00% | +18.91% | +22.77% |
| 2026-06-08 | 3.97 | $230.15 | -9.04% | -15.53% | -8.51% | -15.36% | +4.03% | +11.35% |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $438.72 | -0.43% | +3.72% | +1.15% | +2.59% | -1.06% | -45.26% |
| 2026-04-08 | 4.35 | $446.15 | -1.01% | -0.50% | -2.09% | +0.51% | +0.99% | -45.80% |
| 2026-03-24 | 4.50 | $480.65 | -0.06% | -3.20% | -4.29% | -9.29% | -4.18% | -59.47% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3.62 | $448.91 | +0.22% | +2.37% | +6.73% | +7.07% | -1.62% | -48.73% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $468.46 | -0.92% | -2.78% | -2.78% | -1.84% | -5.29% | -42.62% |
| 2026-03-03 | 4.54 | $448.22 | +0.08% | +3.56% | +0.15% | +6.89% | +1.53% | -32.49% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $494.42 | -2.74% | -6.71% | -5.25% | -7.88% | -4.42% | -30.47% |
| 2026-02-14 | 3.89 | $563.99 | -0.24% | +0.92% | -0.27% | -17.57% | -16.08% | -22.89% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $520.51 | +1.05% | +2.46% | +8.35% | +8.06% | -13.94% | -13.44% |
| 2026-01-14 | 4.64 | $616.28 | -3.05% | -2.73% | -6.93% | -2.78% | -18.11% | -28.81% |
| 2025-12-20 | 3.09 | $624.66 | -5.18% | -5.61% | -4.97% | -2.28% | -5.88% | -26.43% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $545.77 | +8.33% | +2.57% | +7.25% | +0.06% | +8.70% | -17.87% |
| 2025-11-27 | 3.66 | $543.81 | -2.07% | -4.07% | +8.72% | +5.37% | +9.15% | -10.59% |
| 2025-10-13 | 3.98 | $541.50 | +0.99% | -3.49% | -12.70% | +3.22% | -6.68% | +18.53% |
| 2025-10-02 | 4.25 | $592.70 | +0.31% | -0.41% | -1.56% | -11.82% | -9.65% | +0.36% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +26.01%
- 2025-11-27: +8.72%
- 2026-02-07: +8.35%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-09-04: -12.77%
- 2025-10-13: -12.70%
- 2026-06-08: -8.51%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.