Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin rises 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Bitcoin Cash
20 historical signal(s) detected for Bitcoin Cash; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $592.6974 | $583.4470 | -1.56% | 98.44 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $541.5032 | $472.7427 | -12.70% | 85.94 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $543.8084 | $591.2305 | +8.72% | 93.43 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $624.6620 | $593.5910 | -4.97% | 88.79 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $616.2845 | $573.5879 | -6.93% | 82.63 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $520.5123 | $563.9888 | +8.35% | 89.54 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $563.9888 | $562.4408 | -0.27% | 89.29 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $494.4156 | $468.4553 | -5.25% | 84.60 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $468.4553 | $455.4472 | -2.78% | 82.25 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $480.6499 | $460.0231 | -4.29% | 78.72 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $446.1549 | $436.8163 | -2.09% | 77.08 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $230.1538 | $210.5622 | -8.51% | 70.52 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $236.6058 | $223.7509 | -5.43% | 66.68 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $213.2770 | $268.7601 | +26.01% | 84.03 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $256.5979 | $223.8355 | -12.77% | 73.30 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Bitcoin Cash · Read the full methodology