Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day?
Avalanche has recorded 20 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.72% and 35.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -40.8% to -35.2% | 2 |
| -35.2% to -29.7% | 0 |
| -29.7% to -24.2% | 1 |
| -24.2% to -18.6% | 0 |
| -18.6% to -13.1% | 1 |
| -13.1% to -7.6% | 1 |
| -7.6% to -2.1% | 5 |
| -2.1% to +3.5% | 6 |
| +3.5% to +9.0% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 20 | -0.10% | 0.80% | 45.0% | 8.56% | -4.36% |
| 3 days | 20 | -1.82% | -0.85% | 40.0% | 10.61% | -7.98% |
| 7 days | 20 | -0.72% | -1.26% | 35.0% | 12.84% | -17.97% |
| 14 days | 19 | -2.26% | -3.39% | 31.6% | 13.97% | -28.63% |
| 30 days | 18 | -2.82% | -7.76% | 27.8% | 8.99% | -40.76% |
| 90 days | 17 | -26.80% | -19.84% | 23.5% | 17.46% | -59.10% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $7.52 | -1.76% | +5.11% | -1.24% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $6.77 | +7.62% | +10.61% | +9.83% | +6.12% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 4.34 | $6.70 | -0.10% | -1.77% | -2.06% | -1.99% | -3.77% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.38 | $6.64 | -1.05% | +2.22% | -4.92% | -6.16% | -1.37% | +17.46% |
| 2026-06-08 | 3.97 | $6.81 | -0.65% | -6.27% | -0.34% | -10.28% | -1.77% | +11.52% |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $9.69 | -3.89% | +0.39% | -4.27% | -4.40% | +0.60% | -33.95% |
| 2026-04-08 | 4.35 | $9.46 | -4.36% | -0.67% | -1.51% | -0.74% | +0.46% | -26.80% |
| 2026-03-24 | 4.50 | $9.62 | +0.89% | -4.87% | -8.47% | -7.52% | -2.86% | -36.48% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3.62 | $9.31 | +2.96% | +4.51% | +12.84% | +3.33% | -2.79% | -26.84% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $9.53 | -0.90% | -5.38% | +0.23% | +1.94% | -6.51% | -14.30% |
| 2026-03-03 | 4.54 | $9.21 | +0.25% | +2.54% | +1.01% | +13.97% | -0.91% | -2.63% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $9.54 | -1.96% | -3.27% | -0.08% | +0.14% | -7.98% | -4.29% |
| 2026-02-14 | 3.89 | $9.22 | +4.90% | +1.28% | +0.02% | -2.26% | +8.99% | +7.34% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $9.27 | -0.09% | -2.28% | -0.52% | -0.51% | -3.77% | +2.51% |
| 2026-01-14 | 4.64 | $14.79 | -1.11% | -7.98% | -17.97% | -17.56% | -39.34% | -34.47% |
| 2025-12-20 | 3.09 | $12.25 | -0.35% | +1.23% | +0.74% | +12.79% | +4.06% | -22.11% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $13.64 | +8.56% | -3.06% | +7.17% | -9.53% | +0.06% | -32.45% |
| 2025-11-27 | 3.66 | $14.94 | +0.53% | -4.64% | -0.91% | -5.44% | -17.40% | -43.96% |
| 2025-10-13 | 3.98 | $22.54 | +5.71% | -2.77% | -8.64% | -7.59% | -24.56% | -38.79% |
| 2025-10-02 | 4.25 | $30.71 | +0.86% | -1.88% | -6.16% | -28.63% | -40.76% | -59.10% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-03-10: +12.84%
- 2026-08-20: +9.83%
- 2025-12-03: +7.17%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-14: -17.97%
- 2025-10-13: -8.64%
- 2026-03-24: -8.47%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.