Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin rises 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Avalanche
20 historical signal(s) detected for Avalanche; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $30.7084 | $28.8180 | -6.16% | 93.84 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $22.5407 | $20.5929 | -8.64% | 85.73 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $14.9424 | $14.8057 | -0.91% | 84.95 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $12.2516 | $12.3420 | +0.74% | 85.58 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $14.7919 | $12.1331 | -17.97% | 70.20 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $9.2696 | $9.2211 | -0.52% | 69.83 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $9.2211 | $9.2225 | +0.02% | 69.84 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $9.5407 | $9.5327 | -0.08% | 69.78 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $9.5327 | $9.5542 | +0.23% | 69.94 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $9.6155 | $8.8015 | -8.47% | 64.02 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $9.4585 | $9.3153 | -1.51% | 63.05 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $6.8075 | $6.7841 | -0.34% | 62.83 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $6.7022 | $6.5642 | -2.06% | 61.54 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $6.7745 | $7.4403 | +9.83% | 67.58 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $7.5180 | $7.4249 | -1.24% | 66.75 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Avalanche · Read the full methodology