Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day?
Avalanche has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.28% and 47.4% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -58.0% to -50.3% | 1 |
| -50.3% to -42.5% | 0 |
| -42.5% to -34.7% | 3 |
| -34.7% to -27.0% | 6 |
| -27.0% to -19.2% | 2 |
| -19.2% to -11.4% | 2 |
| -11.4% to -3.7% | 2 |
| -3.7% to +4.1% | 0 |
| +4.1% to +11.9% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | -0.89% | -0.24% | 42.1% | 7.32% | -8.44% |
| 3 days | 19 | -1.07% | -0.12% | 47.4% | 14.20% | -13.72% |
| 7 days | 19 | -0.28% | -2.43% | 47.4% | 9.18% | -24.82% |
| 14 days | 19 | -4.78% | -5.29% | 31.6% | 5.51% | -23.38% |
| 30 days | 18 | -7.13% | -7.38% | 38.9% | 13.61% | -31.66% |
| 90 days | 18 | -28.03% | -23.58% | 11.1% | 11.86% | -58.04% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.30 | $7.27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -3.05 | $7.31 | +0.34% | -1.07% | +1.08% | +2.10% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -4.47 | $6.72 | -0.89% | +0.63% | -2.28% | -12.33% | +2.93% | +11.86% |
| 2026-06-02 | -3.10 | $8.92 | -8.44% | -13.72% | -24.20% | -23.38% | -25.36% | -20.32% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.23 | $9.03 | +7.32% | +4.55% | -0.28% | +4.79% | +8.88% | -27.52% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.61 | $9.15 | -4.02% | -6.01% | -4.30% | +2.58% | +2.37% | -29.46% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.76 | $9.72 | -1.80% | -5.37% | +0.36% | -6.06% | +0.20% | -29.28% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.85 | $9.08 | -0.64% | +2.51% | +7.33% | +5.51% | +0.82% | -15.20% |
| 2026-02-23 | -4.17 | $8.54 | -0.99% | +11.73% | +6.33% | +4.47% | +13.61% | +9.92% |
| 2026-02-04 | -3.87 | $9.94 | -1.92% | -6.74% | -11.97% | -7.03% | -4.96% | -7.71% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $10.16 | -1.83% | -2.15% | -8.83% | -4.78% | -9.30% | -10.55% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $11.08 | -1.62% | -9.98% | -24.82% | -19.00% | -16.68% | -17.67% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.48 | $12.13 | +2.78% | +0.38% | +0.51% | -18.08% | -26.03% | -23.53% |
| 2025-12-06 | -3.10 | $13.22 | +1.41% | +3.17% | -0.85% | -7.34% | +8.11% | -28.55% |
| 2025-12-02 | -4.49 | $12.75 | +6.96% | +12.91% | +6.97% | -3.21% | -3.46% | -28.80% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $13.81 | -3.71% | -3.94% | +8.74% | +4.22% | -11.62% | -35.29% |
| 2025-11-15 | -4.73 | $15.14 | +2.53% | -4.20% | -12.12% | -1.87% | -14.86% | -40.72% |
| 2025-11-04 | -3.66 | $16.64 | -3.78% | -3.25% | +9.18% | -12.87% | -11.04% | -40.08% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $20.86 | +2.97% | +14.20% | -4.34% | -6.55% | -14.84% | -33.47% |
| 2025-09-26 | -3.60 | $28.85 | +0.69% | +4.03% | +7.36% | -1.59% | -31.66% | -58.04% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-04: +9.18%
- 2025-11-21: +8.74%
- 2025-09-26: +7.36%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -24.82%
- 2026-06-02: -24.20%
- 2025-11-15: -12.12%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.