Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin drops 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Avalanche
20 historical signal(s) detected for Avalanche; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $28.8504 | $30.9735 | +7.36% | 107.36 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $20.8648 | $19.9597 | -4.34% | 102.70 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $16.6429 | $18.1705 | +9.18% | 112.13 |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-22 | $15.1362 | $13.3013 | -12.12% | 98.54 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $12.7512 | $13.6405 | +6.97% | 105.41 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $12.1331 | $12.1950 | +0.51% | 105.95 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $11.0771 | $8.3277 | -24.82% | 79.65 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $8.5389 | $9.0794 | +6.33% | 84.69 |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-14 | $9.0780 | $9.7438 | +7.33% | 90.90 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $9.7177 | $9.7527 | +0.36% | 91.23 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $9.1473 | $8.7535 | -4.30% | 87.30 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-20 | $9.0313 | $9.0065 | -0.28% | 87.06 |
| 2026-06-02 | 2026-06-09 | $8.9231 | $6.7634 | -24.20% | 65.99 |
| 2026-08-29 | 2026-09-05 | $7.3064 | $7.3855 | +1.08% | 66.70 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Avalanche · Read the full methodology