Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche After Funding Rises to +0.01%?
Avalanche has recorded 63 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.43% and 46.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -39.6% to -32.7% | 9 |
| -32.7% to -25.7% | 6 |
| -25.7% to -18.8% | 3 |
| -18.8% to -11.8% | 2 |
| -11.8% to -4.9% | 7 |
| -4.9% to +2.1% | 17 |
| +2.1% to +9.0% | 9 |
| +9.0% to +15.9% | 3 |
| +15.9% to +22.9% | 4 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 64 | -0.06% | 0.69% | 48.4% | 13.94% | -5.27% |
| 3 days | 63 | 0.17% | 0.11% | 55.6% | 10.61% | -25.44% |
| 7 days | 63 | -0.43% | -0.06% | 46.0% | 21.08% | -23.95% |
| 14 days | 62 | -1.65% | -3.16% | 43.5% | 21.87% | -34.01% |
| 30 days | 60 | -3.69% | -8.72% | 38.3% | 22.89% | -39.60% |
| 90 days | 49 | -31.60% | -31.63% | 4.1% | 11.05% | -61.21% |
Historical occurrences
64 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 0.01 | $7.56 | -3.89% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-03 | 0.01 | $7.19 | +4.57% | +5.60% | +8.44% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-01 | 0.01 | $7.23 | -0.16% | +4.01% | +11.71% | +4.61% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 0.01 | $6.77 | +7.62% | +10.61% | +9.83% | +6.12% | — | — |
| 2026-08-15 | 0.01 | $6.47 | -2.28% | -1.97% | +21.08% | +12.89% | +12.73% | — |
| 2026-08-13 | 0.01 | $6.31 | +2.15% | +0.17% | +7.30% | +17.85% | +18.16% | — |
| 2026-08-08 | 0.01 | $6.43 | +0.72% | +0.01% | +0.65% | +21.87% | +22.89% | — |
| 2026-08-02 | 0.01 | $6.19 | +5.78% | +7.92% | +4.68% | +2.22% | +16.83% | — |
| 2026-07-25 | 0.01 | $6.30 | +7.51% | +1.62% | +1.26% | +2.08% | +20.75% | — |
| 2026-07-18 | 0.01 | $6.58 | -0.24% | -0.16% | -4.32% | -3.12% | -3.94% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 0.01 | $6.70 | -0.10% | -1.77% | -2.06% | -1.99% | -3.77% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 0.01 | $6.47 | +3.23% | +1.20% | +3.51% | +2.35% | -0.59% | — |
| 2026-07-05 | 0.01 | $6.96 | -0.60% | -3.91% | -5.94% | -5.63% | -5.65% | — |
| 2026-07-03 | 0.01 | $6.79 | +2.22% | +1.83% | -1.72% | -4.20% | -8.93% | — |
| 2026-06-27 | 0.01 | $6.62 | -2.89% | +0.75% | +4.97% | +1.83% | +1.82% | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 0.01 | $9.39 | -1.94% | -2.71% | -4.69% | -29.03% | -33.62% | -16.50% |
| 2026-05-22 | 0.01 | $9.44 | -3.13% | -2.51% | -5.51% | -18.45% | -33.94% | -28.24% |
| 2026-05-19 | 0.01 | $9.24 | -1.52% | +2.19% | +0.66% | -3.41% | -26.83% | -31.54% |
| 2026-05-17 | 0.01 | $9.29 | -1.06% | -2.08% | +1.02% | -3.72% | -26.41% | -30.34% |
| 2026-05-14 | 0.01 | $9.75 | +1.50% | -4.72% | -4.76% | -7.40% | -32.65% | -35.23% |
| 2026-05-11 | 0.01 | $10.23 | -1.02% | -4.66% | -10.12% | -10.02% | -35.12% | -36.68% |
| 2026-05-03 | 0.01 | $9.18 | -1.14% | +2.42% | +8.52% | +1.18% | -2.82% | -30.53% |
| 2026-05-01 | 0.01 | $9.09 | -0.04% | -0.14% | +4.53% | +8.89% | -1.59% | -29.35% |
| 2026-04-29 | 0.01 | $9.17 | -0.58% | -0.94% | +2.52% | +7.20% | -2.76% | -30.21% |
| 2026-04-24 | 0.01 | $9.38 | +0.13% | +0.85% | -3.13% | +1.26% | +0.02% | -29.45% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-15: +21.08%
- 2025-09-13: +16.53%
- 2025-12-31: +16.08%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-09: -23.95%
- 2025-12-10: -15.58%
- 2025-11-08: -14.90%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is at or above 0.01%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.