Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche After Funding Falls to -0.01%?
Avalanche has recorded 58 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.82% and 44.8% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -33.5% to -27.9% | 1 |
| -27.9% to -22.3% | 0 |
| -22.3% to -16.7% | 1 |
| -16.7% to -11.0% | 6 |
| -11.0% to -5.4% | 11 |
| -5.4% to +0.2% | 13 |
| +0.2% to +5.8% | 19 |
| +5.8% to +11.4% | 5 |
| +11.4% to +17.0% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 58 | -1.59% | -1.52% | 29.3% | 11.31% | -12.70% |
| 3 days | 58 | -1.96% | -1.19% | 39.7% | 14.20% | -11.76% |
| 7 days | 58 | -1.82% | -2.51% | 44.8% | 17.02% | -33.48% |
| 14 days | 58 | -2.13% | -4.69% | 44.8% | 18.83% | -36.37% |
| 30 days | 58 | -2.91% | -7.33% | 31.0% | 18.37% | -42.88% |
| 90 days | 49 | -28.94% | -22.91% | 12.2% | 16.83% | -56.49% |
Historical occurrences
58 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | -0.02 | $6.32 | -0.03% | +2.48% | +0.21% | +16.00% | +17.57% | — |
| 2026-08-06 | -0.01 | $6.66 | -3.35% | -2.70% | -5.14% | +1.78% | +10.96% | — |
| 2026-08-02 | -0.02 | $6.19 | +5.78% | +7.92% | +4.68% | +2.22% | +16.83% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | -0.01 | $6.62 | -5.40% | +2.29% | -2.99% | +0.54% | +18.37% | — |
| 2026-07-20 | -0.01 | $6.46 | +1.76% | +2.50% | +4.28% | +1.32% | -2.02% | — |
| 2026-07-12 | -0.02 | $6.55 | -2.20% | +2.38% | +0.33% | +3.45% | -1.76% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | -0.02 | $6.69 | -3.27% | +0.74% | +0.23% | -1.83% | -3.80% | — |
| 2026-07-05 | -0.01 | $6.96 | -0.60% | -3.91% | -5.94% | -5.63% | -5.65% | — |
| 2026-06-25 | -0.01 | $6.45 | -3.49% | -0.44% | +3.21% | +0.24% | -2.38% | — |
| 2026-06-18 | -0.02 | $6.76 | -6.63% | -7.73% | -4.53% | -1.47% | -2.60% | +7.53% |
| 2026-06-14 | -0.02 | $6.72 | +1.03% | +2.34% | -7.13% | -4.33% | -4.00% | +11.09% |
| 2026-06-09 | -0.02 | $6.76 | -1.89% | -1.87% | +1.09% | -7.89% | -4.36% | +16.83% |
| 2026-06-05 | -0.01 | $7.70 | -12.70% | -11.57% | -13.79% | -18.03% | -9.60% | -6.61% |
| 2026-05-28 | -0.01 | $9.03 | -1.22% | -0.94% | -10.88% | -29.34% | -26.74% | -18.87% |
| 2026-05-15 | -0.02 | $9.90 | -3.66% | -7.13% | -4.62% | -9.88% | -32.16% | -36.21% |
| 2026-05-13 | -0.01 | $9.83 | -0.84% | -3.03% | -7.48% | -7.14% | -32.51% | -34.60% |
| 2026-05-03 | -0.02 | $9.18 | -1.14% | +2.42% | +8.52% | +1.18% | -2.82% | -30.53% |
| 2026-04-26 | -0.01 | $9.36 | +1.06% | -2.05% | -1.95% | +6.40% | -0.70% | -32.73% |
| 2026-04-23 | -0.01 | $9.34 | +0.46% | +0.25% | -2.37% | +2.91% | -2.09% | -29.72% |
| 2026-04-20 | -0.01 | $9.01 | +3.02% | +3.71% | +5.08% | +0.79% | +1.01% | -27.08% |
| 2026-04-18 | -0.01 | $9.74 | -4.12% | -4.70% | -3.50% | -6.68% | -5.59% | -33.16% |
| 2026-04-11 | -0.01 | $9.40 | -0.21% | +3.16% | +3.63% | +0.01% | +8.86% | -28.94% |
| 2026-04-07 | -0.04 | $8.89 | +6.37% | +5.52% | +9.01% | +4.35% | +8.10% | -22.20% |
| 2026-04-02 | -0.02 | $9.13 | -4.11% | -1.50% | -0.90% | +3.44% | -0.47% | -28.48% |
| 2026-03-27 | -0.02 | $9.15 | -4.02% | -6.01% | -4.30% | +2.58% | +2.37% | -29.46% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-12-30: +17.02%
- 2026-01-01: +14.66%
- 2026-04-07: +9.01%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-04: -33.48%
- 2025-10-28: -18.12%
- 2025-12-11: -16.17%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is at or below -0.01%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.