Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche After a 5% One-Day Drop?
Avalanche has recorded 22 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -4.32% and 31.8% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -30.0% to -25.8% | 1 |
| -25.8% to -21.6% | 1 |
| -21.6% to -17.4% | 3 |
| -17.4% to -13.2% | 2 |
| -13.2% to -9.0% | 3 |
| -9.0% to -4.8% | 3 |
| -4.8% to -0.6% | 4 |
| -0.6% to +3.6% | 2 |
| +3.6% to +7.8% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 22 | -0.48% | 0.28% | 45.5% | 11.31% | -6.63% |
| 3 days | 22 | -2.17% | -1.12% | 45.5% | 14.20% | -25.33% |
| 7 days | 22 | -4.32% | -5.25% | 31.8% | 9.18% | -24.82% |
| 14 days | 22 | -6.95% | -8.47% | 22.7% | 7.77% | -30.03% |
| 30 days | 22 | -12.94% | -10.42% | 36.4% | 19.65% | -42.37% |
| 90 days | 20 | -29.04% | -24.81% | 15.0% | 15.42% | -58.04% |
Historical occurrences
22 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | -5.40 | $6.26 | +0.59% | +7.56% | +2.69% | +2.72% | +19.65% | — |
| 2026-06-19 | -6.63 | $6.31 | -6.63% | -3.21% | -1.31% | +7.65% | +4.07% | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -12.70 | $6.72 | -0.89% | +0.63% | -2.28% | -12.33% | +2.93% | +11.86% |
| 2026-06-03 | -8.44 | $8.17 | -1.50% | -17.73% | -18.78% | -15.88% | -16.84% | -11.52% |
| 2026-03-27 | -6.21 | $9.15 | -4.02% | -6.01% | -4.30% | +2.58% | +2.37% | -29.46% |
| 2026-03-19 | -5.27 | $9.72 | -1.80% | -5.37% | +0.36% | -6.06% | +0.20% | -29.28% |
| 2026-02-23 | -7.26 | $8.54 | -0.99% | +11.73% | +6.33% | +4.47% | +13.61% | +9.92% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.57 | $8.33 | +11.31% | +10.10% | +7.74% | +7.77% | +8.31% | +15.42% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.79 | $10.16 | -1.83% | -2.15% | -8.83% | -4.78% | -9.30% | -10.55% |
| 2026-01-30 | -8.66 | $11.08 | -1.62% | -9.98% | -24.82% | -19.00% | -16.68% | -17.67% |
| 2026-01-26 | -5.23 | $11.53 | +2.03% | +5.21% | -13.49% | -20.45% | -27.35% | -18.76% |
| 2026-01-19 | -7.28 | $12.75 | -0.06% | -2.19% | -9.58% | -21.78% | -27.52% | -26.77% |
| 2026-01-16 | -5.43 | $13.83 | -1.60% | -7.84% | -11.42% | -19.92% | -30.07% | -31.74% |
| 2025-12-06 | -8.17 | $13.22 | +1.41% | +3.17% | -0.85% | -7.34% | +8.11% | -28.55% |
| 2025-12-02 | -7.33 | $12.75 | +6.96% | +12.91% | +6.97% | -3.21% | -3.46% | -28.80% |
| 2025-11-15 | -5.89 | $15.14 | +2.53% | -4.20% | -12.12% | -1.87% | -14.86% | -40.72% |
| 2025-11-12 | -6.41 | $17.01 | -1.15% | -10.99% | -14.37% | -16.64% | -21.04% | -46.73% |
| 2025-11-04 | -11.67 | $16.64 | -3.78% | -3.25% | +9.18% | -12.87% | -11.04% | -40.08% |
| 2025-10-31 | -7.81 | $18.12 | +0.39% | +3.97% | -11.15% | -11.24% | -21.37% | -33.07% |
| 2025-10-11 | -26.51 | $20.86 | +2.97% | +14.20% | -4.34% | -6.55% | -14.84% | -33.47% |
| 2025-10-08 | -8.93 | $27.94 | +3.14% | -25.33% | -18.57% | -30.03% | -42.37% | -48.23% |
| 2025-09-26 | -10.77 | $28.85 | +0.69% | +4.03% | +7.36% | -1.59% | -31.66% | -58.04% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-04: +9.18%
- 2026-02-06: +7.74%
- 2025-09-26: +7.36%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -24.82%
- 2026-06-03: -18.78%
- 2025-10-08: -18.57%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.