Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 5% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 5% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Avalanche
22 historical signal(s) detected for Avalanche; 14 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (8 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $28.8504 | $30.9735 | +7.36% | 107.36 |
| 2025-10-08 | 2025-10-15 | $27.9411 | $22.7524 | -18.57% | 87.42 |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-11-07 | $18.1215 | $16.1013 | -11.15% | 77.68 |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-11-19 | $17.0051 | $14.5614 | -14.37% | 66.51 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $12.7512 | $13.6405 | +6.97% | 71.15 |
| 2026-01-16 | 2026-01-23 | $13.8327 | $12.2528 | -11.42% | 63.03 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | $11.5270 | $9.9718 | -13.49% | 54.52 |
| 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-13 | $8.3277 | $8.9723 | +7.74% | 58.74 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $8.5389 | $9.0794 | +6.33% | 62.46 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $9.7177 | $9.7527 | +0.36% | 62.69 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $9.1473 | $8.7535 | -4.30% | 59.99 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $8.1696 | $6.6353 | -18.78% | 48.72 |
| 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-26 | $6.3106 | $6.2279 | -1.31% | 48.08 |
| 2026-07-24 | 2026-07-31 | $6.2625 | $6.4310 | +2.69% | 49.38 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Avalanche · Read the full methodology