Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche After a 10% Seven-Day Drop?
Avalanche has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.49% and 42.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -58.8% to -50.8% | 2 |
| -50.8% to -42.9% | 0 |
| -42.9% to -34.9% | 3 |
| -34.9% to -26.9% | 3 |
| -26.9% to -19.0% | 1 |
| -19.0% to -11.0% | 3 |
| -11.0% to -3.0% | 0 |
| -3.0% to +4.9% | 0 |
| +4.9% to +12.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | 0.59% | -0.31% | 57.1% | 5.84% | -6.79% |
| 3 days | 14 | -0.16% | -0.45% | 50.0% | 14.20% | -17.73% |
| 7 days | 14 | -0.49% | -1.91% | 42.9% | 12.27% | -18.78% |
| 14 days | 14 | -7.00% | -7.96% | 14.3% | 17.85% | -24.16% |
| 30 days | 14 | -15.77% | -13.67% | 28.6% | 12.11% | -39.60% |
| 90 days | 13 | -31.20% | -29.37% | 7.7% | 12.92% | -58.80% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | -10.28 | $5.89 | +5.84% | +5.73% | +12.27% | +17.85% | +9.62% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | -10.53 | $8.17 | -1.50% | -17.73% | -18.78% | -15.88% | -16.84% | -11.52% |
| 2026-05-18 | -10.12 | $9.19 | +0.49% | +1.03% | +0.12% | -2.42% | -25.24% | -31.20% |
| 2026-02-10 | -11.04 | $9.06 | -3.41% | -0.94% | +3.11% | -6.67% | +5.48% | +12.92% |
| 2026-01-31 | -10.52 | $10.90 | -6.79% | -6.57% | -14.94% | -15.39% | -16.69% | -16.59% |
| 2026-01-21 | -17.97 | $12.13 | +2.78% | +0.38% | +0.51% | -18.08% | -26.03% | -23.53% |
| 2025-12-17 | -15.58 | $12.34 | -4.00% | -0.70% | -1.29% | +1.79% | +12.11% | -14.90% |
| 2025-12-06 | -10.98 | $13.22 | +1.41% | +3.17% | -0.85% | -7.34% | +8.11% | -28.55% |
| 2025-11-15 | -14.90 | $15.14 | +2.53% | -4.20% | -12.12% | -1.87% | -14.86% | -40.72% |
| 2025-11-04 | -18.12 | $16.64 | -3.78% | -3.25% | +9.18% | -12.87% | -11.04% | -40.08% |
| 2025-10-21 | -14.58 | $20.35 | -3.94% | -6.01% | -0.14% | -18.23% | -29.94% | -37.36% |
| 2025-10-11 | -33.48 | $20.86 | +2.97% | +14.20% | -4.34% | -6.55% | -14.84% | -33.47% |
| 2025-10-01 | -10.78 | $30.00 | +2.35% | +4.55% | -6.87% | -24.16% | -39.60% | -58.80% |
| 2025-09-26 | -18.11 | $28.85 | +0.69% | +4.03% | +7.36% | -1.59% | -31.66% | -58.04% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-20: +12.27%
- 2025-11-04: +9.18%
- 2025-09-26: +7.36%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-03: -18.78%
- 2026-01-31: -14.94%
- 2025-11-15: -12.12%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.